It's been a week of a sudden revival in the crypto market for Bitcoin.
BTC had been languishing below the $80,000 mark for weeks, a trend that was mirrored by the broader cryptocurrency market, which also turned positive on September 18. Some assets saw significant gains as the move was made, including Solana and Hyperliquid.
On the surface, it appears to be another run-up of Bitcoin.
But something's going on below.
Liquidity, regulatory and institutional interest are now competing to drive the crypto market.
This fight could be more significant than a single price for Bitcoin.
$80K Is More Than Just A Number
Bitcoin has been struggling to make a decision in September for a very long time.
The market started off the month after a massive August shift, and traders were also facing a shift in expectations on US monetary policy.
The price of Bitcoin has once again crossed into the $80,000 range thanks to its recent recovery. On September 18, the Block reported that BTC rallied by over 5% as a wide range of cryptocurrencies experienced a bull market rally.
However, here's the interesting part:
The market has lost its originality and is no longer moving alone.
Bitcoin is taking a turn to catch up to traditional finance.
Interest rates.
Treasury yields.
ETF flows.
Dollar liquidity.
And institutional positioning.
Hence, just examining the Bitcoin chart is not enough.
The Fed Is Still In The Room
The Federal Reserve is one of the greatest threats to crypto at the moment.
CoinShares' September 18 market update noted that the market recently has been difficult for Bitcoin, citing the recent Federal Reserve more hawkish stance and the backlash to the CLARITY Act.
Why does it matter?
The liquidity of crypto is extremely important and needs to be considered.
In a period of easier financial conditions, investors tend to have more space to look elsewhere for riskier investments.
This can be a pretty challenging time for speculative assets when yields are going up and monetary conditions are going tight.
That's why sometimes, Bitcoin can trade quite strongly without a significant Bitcoin announcement.
The catalyst isn't always crypto.
It's the economy around crypto sometimes.
And Then There's The Stablecoin Story
It could very well be this one of the more significant stories behind the buzz.
Stablecoins are becoming increasingly important to the digital-asset financial system.
Stablecoins are typically pegged to other assets like the US dollar and are designed to have a relatively stable value compared to Bitcoin.
It allows them to navigate the cryptocurrency exchanges without incurring the same volatility risks as BTC or other tokens.
In September, Reuters reported that stablecoins are gaining traction as regulators pursue more definitive regulations for digital-asset payments.
And this presents a strange situation.
Bitcoin is the star of the show.
However, stablecoins are quietly developing some of the industry's infrastructure.
The Strange Part: Bitcoin Isn't The Only Story
A further big development is taking place with crypto related companies available.
For example, Bitcoin miners are now looking into artificial intelligence and supercomputers.
Several crypto mining firms have shifted to building businesses in the field of AI data-center infrastructure, according to The Block, which may eventually prove useful to both the crypto industry and the AI boom.
Consider this rare.Consider this unusual.
The company started out to mine Bitcoin and may become a part of the AI infrastructure industry.
It's a testament to the rapid pace at which boundaries between crypto, AI and traditional technology infrastructure are shifting.
Crypto Is Becoming More Connected To Everything
This is something I feel a lot of people are lacking.
It is possible that the next big crypto news isn't related to a new meme coin.
It might come from:
AI + crypto
Stablecoins + banking
Bitcoin + ETFs
Mining + data centers
Crypto + traditional finance
The industry is becoming increasingly interconnected with the rest of the financial and technology system.
And, that's a story much larger than just asking:
“Does anyone think Bitcoin will get any higher?”
The $80K Question
When Bitcoin has a price above $80,000, it certainly captures the attention.
However, the bigger question is whether the demand can persist in such difficult monetary conditions?
New institutional interest and strong macroeconomic headwinds have emerged in the market since the last research.
It is at a crossroads, then, in the market.
On one side:
Institutional adoption, ETFs, stablecoins and the growing crypto infrastructure.
On the other:
Interest rates, inflation, regulation and liquidity.
Bitcoin is now in the middle of the battle.
Hence the coming few months may be much more interesting than the $80K as advertised.
Final Thoughts
Crypto has changed.
Several years ago, bitcoin was able to shift its direction due to a tweet, meme or a spike in retail speculation.
In today's ever-expanding market, central banks, ETFs, government regulations, stablecoins, AI infrastructure and institutional capital are increasingly interwoven.
But that doesn't mean that crypto is less volatile.
It complicates the reason it's volatile.
Rather than follow the price of bitcoin, I am following the things that underlie it.
Sometimes the biggest crypto story isn't the candle on the chart.
It is what is making the candle's motion.