Bitcoin’s Bottom is Near-But These 3 Metrics Say It’s Not Yet

By Danyal khan | crypto-safety-first | 18 hours ago

I've been keeping my eye on the on-chain data, and there’s a crucial signal I’ve noticed:

The common question on many investors' minds right now is: "Is the bottom in?"

The honest answer, based on the data: Not yet.

Here’s a look at what the charts actually show.

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The Current State of On-Chain Indicators

Three prominent on-chain indicators are still significantly above the levels they’ve hit in past bear markets when Bitcoin reached its lowest points.

* NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): This currently stands at 0.11, which is in the "Hope/Fear" zone but hasn’t yet dipped into the negative "Capitulation" territory that was seen at the absolute lows of 2018 and 2022. Back in November 2022, when BTC was around $15,000, NUPL was negative; it’s positive now.

* MVRV Z-Score: At 0.22, this indicator suggests that Bitcoin is currently trading close to its fair value, but not at the deeply undervalued levels typically associated with market bottoms. In November 2022, the MVRV Z-Score was -0.286, and in March 2020, it was -0.20. The current reading is approaching the lows, but still has room to fall.

* Puell Multiple: This metric gauges miner profitability and stood at 0.51 on June 3. It remains above the 0.5 level that has often signaled capitulation among miners.

While all three indicators have shown a downward trend during this correction, they haven't yet reached the extreme lows that have historically confirmed a true market bottom.

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The Timing Outlook Based on Halving Cycles

The halving cycle itself points toward a later bottom date. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024. Historically, Bitcoin tends to reach its bull market high approximately 12 to 18 months post-halving and its bear market bottom 24 to 28 months after a halving.

This cycle appears to be aligning with this pattern, having peaked around October 2025, which is roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving. Following the pattern of a 12- to 15-month peak-to-bottom duration observed in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, the likely bottoming period is expected to be between October 2026 and January 2027, with Q4 2026 being the most probable window.

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What the Experts Are Saying

Several notable analysts have shared their perspectives on the market timing:

* Benjamin Cowen’s July analysis suggests the next Bitcoin bottom will occur in the fourth quarter of 2026. He predicts a floor around $44,000 and indicates his framework has now shifted to a “bottom-watch” mode. Cowen highlights that both the October 2025 and June 2019 tops occurred on a backdrop of apathy rather than euphoria, and views the March 2020 crash as an external event. Given the lack of a similar external shock this cycle, he anticipates the reset will play out over time, stating: "The framework is in bottom-watch mode, with the low most likely a matter of months rather than weeks away."

* Galaxy Digital’s research reveals that only four out of 13 conditions present at previous Bitcoin cycle bottoms are currently being met. They estimate a base case between $40,000 and $46,000 by Q4 2026.

* Standard Chartered has a more optimistic outlook, forecasting a bottom at $59,000 and a year-end target of $100,000.

* CryptoQuant identifies $53,600 as a valuation bottom, noting that Bitcoin’s realized price – the average cost basis of all BTC based on their last on-chain transaction – has been a key support level during bear markets.

* 10x Research has progressively lowered its bottom estimate from $55,000 to about $50,000, with a potential range of $46,628 to $50,732.

* NYDIG speculates that this might be Bitcoin’s shallowest bear market ever and could mark the current price as the bottom, though their extreme downside scenario points to $37,900.

* Bitfinex views the $53,400 realized price as important structural support, warning that weak demand could push prices down to $40,000 in the fourth quarter.

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The General Consensus

Despite variations in price targets, there is a general agreement among three firms on three key points:

1. The bottom will occur within this year.

2. Bitcoin is closer to the bottom than to a new high.

3. Another bull cycle is expected to follow.

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What This Means For You

The on-chain data clearly suggests that the bottom is approaching, but it hasn’t quite arrived yet. We are likely in the latter stages of the bear market, with key indicators moving in the right direction, albeit not yet to their most extreme, bottom-signaling levels.

For investors utilizing Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA), this phase, where short-term holder cost basis remains below that of long-term holders, has historically been an excellent time for accumulating assets. For traders, the window of opportunity appears to be around Q4 2026.

Remember to stay disciplined, maintain patience, and continue monitoring the data.