While the common proponent phrase "HODL" may be a common chorus, the reality of Bitcoin now in 2024 forward is that it's mainly a tool in the land of giants. Even though it's very possible for the average user to have a few fractions of the token, it's the institutional powers that now have the market play. Whether it's the latest from investment houses like MetaPlanet or Michael Saylor moving another couple million, the daily transactions are in the major leagues thanks to the price of the coin moving well beyond the means of the average person. In fact, if it's not investment houses, central banks are the other players as seen with Germany and the U.S. unloading their forfeitures for sheer governmental profit. 

Will Bitcoin Collapse Again?

The last drop to $15K levels was a clear abandonment of Bitcoin as a value-holder after the bull run that started in 2019. Call it what you want, the inevitable fall back down from the heights of $50K/coin was flat out speculation trading up and down, with most of the losses being paid by latecomers to the party. Given the track record and current inflation, Bitcoin is definitely positioned for another correction, and a painful one at that. The question is, how low will the institutions allow the crypto to go while they obviously gobble up bigger positions.

Further, and more important for the big players, what is the end game? Bitcoin is limited. While it's value has definitely risen, the coin doesn't provide any actual benefit beyond an arbitrary price set by the whims of the market. The banks have definitely been feeling left out, constrained by their old guard from speculating in Bitcoin up to now, and they are desperate for a proliferation of ETFs in the main fiat market. Easy day trading profits are the immediate expectation. However, long-term, the one primary benefit Bitcoin seems to provide is a value-holder free of government control, at least for now. While the government can pressure holders to hand over their keys, it can't actually control the network. That's extremely attractive for anyone looking to keep their assets free of compromise by politics. Yet, the benefit can be a double-edged sword; what the government can't control it tends to ban or make illegal. And, remember, the government doesn't need to police the Internet - it can use tax laws for force people to report illegal Bitcoin activity producing profits, or face even worse problems of tax violations. But this is a dystopian future; so far most regulation aside from a basic line on tax forms for miscellaneous income has been confusion at best. 

So, Bitcoin won't collapse immediate from anything the government is doing. More than likely, Bitcoin's fall will come from impatient big players not being able to justify sitting in the coin and waiting without producing extreme profits. While Bitcoin was rising, this wasn't a problem. As long as Bitcoin kept running higher and higher, fund managers could argue paper profits are worth the risk. But now, with a dropping, stagnating value arc, those same managers now have to fight off demands to move their capital elsewhere. Some are not so confident and have already moved out, triggering falling values. And the media is no help, practically encouraging a price fall with daily stories of impending doom to get story traffic FUD attention ratings. 

So Wait and Jump in Again?

Despite the above, unless the big players take the exit door, Bitcoin is unlikely to dip far again. $40k is likely, but below $20k would be shocking and on no one's radar right now. Instead of waiting for the illusive dip, the best play would be consistent building in regular deposits on the strategy that Bitcoin long-term is going to $100k. This puts the vote on the side of institutions continuing the support Bitcoin and use it more and more for institutional value protection outside the traditional banking system. However, again, the Achilles' Heel is profit-making. Where Bitcoin goes stagnant, it loses attraction. So, the run to $100k is promising, but once there, it may very well be game over.

Nothing good lasts forever.