Sirwin
Sirwin

Liquidated Leveraged BTC Longs? BTFD (3/17/21 Bitcoin Forecast)

By Biz Wisdom | Crypto Daily FX | 17 Mar 2021


Bitcoin fell a bit on Tuesday, dipping to about the $53,500K level before finding some buyers, recovering to a pretty flat trading day around $56,500. This is a dragonfly doji, indicating there are still traders buying the dip especially as Bitcoin approaches the rising trendline has been supportive over the past few weeks' rally. 

cbef861dc26d6854e59c00199071864fbe3d5207d1d6c5308e86c2e4f1cd451b.png

(March 17, 2021  8:30PM EST)

Short-Term:

Bitcoin is off to a slow start this week, shaving off a few thousand after another raucous weekend trading session in which BTC peaked north of $61K in the Sunday trading session/early Monday in Asia. Since then, Bitcoin has retraced all of the gains, now oscillating in the mid-high $50Ks where it quite a bit of turbulence. We are trading in a bit of a sideways pattern, though based on this weekend's price action I think near-term we're likely go grind higher than break lower. Today's price weakness has once again been connected to liquidated leveraged longs - e.g. - washing out paper hands, giving the strong hands another opportunity to accumulate. 

Often, the sharper and longer a rally (or crash), the longer the subsequent consolidation pattern will be. Being that we've been slowly grinding our way up: 2 steps forward, 1 step back as of late, Bitcoin is more in a stepping-stone sort of progression as opposed to a holding pattern. Ultimately, Bitcoin is bullish on all timeframes, the fundamentals are evermore bullish, and institutional and retail demand alike continues to rise while supply programmatically halves. As you've seen lately, dips have been buying opportunities; that should continue for the foreseeable future and likely late into 2021.

As you can see in the BTC daily chart above, there's a horizontal line around $58K indicating minor local resistance and the previous rally's peak. Once Bitcoin decisively breaks above this level, we should see another test of $60K, and possibly a break. A break above $60K will, of course, open up Bitcoin to further price discovery up to the $65K and then $70K levels. In the event Bitcoin gets rejected at resistance around $58K and forms a double-top, Bitcoin could drop back down to $50K or even ~$45K which has been quite supportive and is further supported by the rising 50 Day EMA just below around $42.5K.  

 

Support: 

1st support: $55K, which was tested and held.

2nd support: Previous local resistance around $52K.

Floor: 50 Day EMA around $45K. 

Resistance: 

$60K, then $70K, then $10K intervals up to $100K.

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Biz Wisdom
Biz Wisdom

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