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Sirwin

Final Call for ETH Under $2,000? (3/21/21 Forecast)

By Biz Wisdom | Crypto Daily FX | 15 Mar 2021


Ethereum rallied during the week ending March 14th, bursting up from under $1,600 to about the $1,900 level over the weekend before pulling back a bit, settling the weekly candle just below the $1,800 level. This is a bullish candle as ETH continues to erase losses from the February correction, now only a stone's throw from the ATHs around $2,000. If ETH can break above $2,000 with a decisive candle, then we should see ETH run higher to new highs -- and probably sooner than later. 

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(March 14, 2020 8:30 PM EST)  

Short-Term:

If this bullish short-term momentum continues this week then we could see ETH retest resistance near the highs around $2,000. If ETH breaks above $2,000, then it's off to the races. However, if ETH gets rejected by the $2,000 level or worse, sells off early this week following the weekend rally, then ETH may fall to support around $1,600 where it recently found buyers or pessimistically look to retest the bottom around $1,400 or even $1,300. 

In the near future, the Berlin Upgrade is scheduled to take place on April 14, or block 12,244,000. This initial network upgrade decreases gas fees in some areas and increases them to one other, introduces a new transaction type that is an envelope to enable easier support for multiple transaction types, and "Adds a transaction type which contains an access list, a list of addresses and storage keys that the transaction plans to access. This mitigates some of the gas cost increases introduced by EIP-2929." 

EIP-1559 has officially been accepted with a projected release date of July along with the long-awaited London update. EIP-1559 will provide fixed gas fees which have gotten expensive and out of control of late due to high network usage, but more importantly it will burn Ethereum "basefees" that were otherwise generated to give to miners. This will effectively reduce Ethereum's inflationary monetary and possibly even make it slightly deflationary. This is obvious a very bullish macroeconomic fundamental shift for ETH. 

 

Long-Term:

\Ethereum appears to be gearing up for a massive rally this spring in confluence with bullish crypto seasonality typically seen in April/May - possibly June. If this late 2020-early 2021 rally was indeed a Wave 1 on the weekly chart, then we're likely gearing up to start an impulsive Wave 3 rally which is notoriously intense and typically the longest wave. Accordingly, this next bullish wave could conservatively take ETH up to the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level around $4,854. The more optimistic fib extension level, 3.618, would be around $6,500 before a W4 correction. 

ETH/BTC retraced up and promptly fell last week, rallying to the 0.035 level before finding resistance and getting rejected, returning to support around the 0.031 level. This is no surprise as Bitcoin put in another new ATH north of $61K at the time of writing and Bitcoin dominance continues to weaken altcoins in its wake. This is simply the path going forward as Bitcoin leads the pack and alts follow in tow, hoping to "catch up" every once in a while, whether it's bullish news or a BTC correction in which capital rotates out of Bitcoin and into large-caps like Ethereum.

In many ways, ETH appears to follow BTC inexactly as ETH interestingly mimics BTC's previous market cycles, following a similar price cycle up and down, and even somewhat tracking the same highs and lows. Now, if that was the case, then ETH is in the early stages of Bitcoin's 2016-2017 cycle, which, of course, Bitcoin topped around $20K. Now, that's not to say that ETH has to follow BTC to $20K exactly like BTC did, however, it wouldn't be unusual for ETH to track a similar trajectory up to $10K or so and maybe even wick higher on a blowoff top, depending on the intensity of the impulsive Wave 5 late in the cycle. 

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From my perspective, all signs indicate it's probably wise to buy ETH or earn ETH now before prices continue to ascend in dramatic throughout the rest of 2021 and further. Buying ETH under $2,000 is like buying Bitcoin under $30K; not much higher than the previous ATH, and not likely to last much longer. 

Support:

Look for immediate support around $1,500, which was supportive recently, and then $1,400, a stronger and previous resistance level. 

Resistance:

$2,000. Above that, look for resistance around $2,500 and then $3,000. 

Buy Ethereum here.

Earn Ethereum here

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Biz Wisdom
Biz Wisdom

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