We see a lot of projections and people trying to figure out where the cryptocurrency market is going.
I think it is no longer a question of whether this is going to be a part of the future. Blockchain and cryptocurrency are growing. I keep coming across more reports by research and investing institutions about the possibilities that exist.
This leads to projections by many people on the Internet, especially YouTube. A lot of these are fun and some are even well thought out.
I came across a video where there was a rational used. In it. the view was that the cryptocurrency market would see a 55x increase by around 2023. This would put the market cap at $11 trillion or bigger than the gold market.
This number was derived from using a correlation of the past moves higher as a percentage of the overall gain. Each bull run is seeing smaller growth as compared to the earlier one. We are also seeing the time between runs expanding.
As we can see, the presumption is that Bitcoin will be about $140K by 2023, which is a rather conservative forecast compared to some out there. When multiplying that by the number of BTC available, we come up with a market cap of $2.7 trillion.
This leaves the Alt-Coin market with a cap of just under $9B while reducing the percentage of Bitcoin's total to .235. It is a situation we witnessed each run since Alt-Coins tended to break out.
What is really interesting about this analysis is that, while a 55x return sounds great, it is actually much bigger for the Alt-Coins. Presently, they make up about $60B meaning a run to near 9 trillion is a 150x.
This actually makes sense.
Here is the video. It is rather long so you can save some time by starting at about the 7-minute market to about 11 to get the gist.
Obviously, we are dealing with projections and speculation here. This could all be amiss by a wide margin. However, I do like some of the logic applied. Along with that, there seemed to be an effort to cut the estimates to a more conservative level. As mentioned, Bitcoin at $140K is an estimate that is lower than most.
The Alt-Coin market might seem absurd to some but there is also a pattern here that warrants highlighting. While Bitcoin is fixed at well, Bitcoin, there are new Alt-Coins showing up. We are going to see a continual expansion of then as the years pass with new projects showing up.
At the same time, we also get into some semantics. What is meant by cryptocurrency? Does this mean we are dealing with anything tokenized?
Obviously, there is will be great variations depending upon what qualifies as a cryptocurrency and whether we focus upon the decentralized ones only. For example, security tokens are going to grow in popularity in my opinion. This could include not only financial assets but real estate too. Here we see a market that could make the $11 trillion look small.
I am going to presume it is only focusing upon the category we are pretty much dealing with now which is likely going to expand greatly. As stated, we are seeing more projects coming online each day. While some are going to fail, there will be many winners, a few which might actually be game-changers.
Let us take Splinterlands. From what I read, there is a value of around $5M for the cards in the game so far. Could that game 10x? 100x? The answer is yes. Not only could the value of the assets already in existence increase in value as more players sign on but we also will see newer cards being offered out.
Of course, we see the same thing playing out with each token. Every day, more are created. This increases the supply which, all things being equal, will be offset by a reduction in price. Projects that see an increase in usage, over time, should see that reflected in the total price.
Like everything else, STEEM is down in terms of the price. However, over the past year, we saw a lot of development that is starting to yield dividends in terms of what is being offered on this blockchain. We see a great expansion in, not only the number of projects, but the features being offered.
We have a number of things slated to roll out over the next 90 days that could take things to the next level. We are looking at NFTs and fiat being added to Steem-Engine. Communities is in beta. The projection is the hard fork to bring SMTs live will take place somewhere around March.
These are the announcements we already have. What makes things interesting is what will arise that we are not aware of at this moment. Recently, we learned about the @openseed project which aims to make development a lot simpler (and quicker).
The key to me is that Steem is now becoming a token factory. With Steem-Engine, along with the release of SMTs, any project can be tokenized on Steem. We are in the early days, a time when innovation has not really hit yet. Cryptocurrency is technology, hence it evolves. Like all technologies, version 1.0 is not as advanced as 5.0. The reality is we have no idea what the uses and projects people will come up within a few years regarding this. I would expect some of the use cases to be much different than today.
Will the market cap be $11T by 2023? We will have to see in 3 years. What I can say is those projects that are working hard behind the scenes are the ones who have a chance to ride the bull much higher when it hits.
Another thing that I agree with within the video: it is during the bear that one should accumulate. This is where the most impact can be made. It is a time when everyone else is sour and things do not appear optimistic. However, those who are adding will see their account grow exponentially when the bull does start to run.
The Steem ecosystem appears to be a place to do just that.
// Posted From Steem.