On Saturday, legendary pollster Ann Selzer dropped a bombshell on the political world when she released her final Iowa poll showing Kamala Harris leading 47-44. Iowa is not a state that has been considered competitive in over a decade and earlier polls showed a lead of between 8-15% for Trump. Political watchers had been anticipating Selzer's poll as it's considered the gold standard for polling in Iowa and in prior elections it has revealed national trends before any other pollster, including successfully predicting Trump's win in 2016 when almost every one else expected Hillary Clinton to cruise to victory. But nobody expected it to show a lead for Harris and there was an immediate reaction with betting markets like Polymarket showing a much tighter race with Trump's odds of winning dropping from ~60% to 53% in the immediate aftermath.

Some subsequent polls have also shown similar shifts, including one released the same day by Kansas Speaks showing Trump with only a 5 point lead in Kansas, a state he won by 14 points in 2020. Analysis of polling data shows these trends are being driven by independent voters, particularly women, breaking for Harris in the final days of the campaign. If these trends continue it could drastically reshape the outcome of the election on Tuesday with Harris and Democrats picking up wins nobody expected.

The race is still very close and a small polling error in either direction means either candidate could win in a squeaker or a landslide. We won't know which way things go until the dust settles on election day, or possibly many days after if it's close and there are recounts and legal challenges. Will Ann Selzer continue her conventional wisdom breaking winning streak, or will this be a rare miss for her? We won't have to wait much longer to find out.