The cost of living has made it difficult for Millennials, and now Gen Zs, to get an apartment and eventually buy a house on their own, at least in the United States. When I lived in Italy more than a decade ago, the story was similar. A recent article in The Guardian discussed how in many countries in the western world, the birth rate is falling; this is true in many countries in Asia as well. The Lancet believes that our world will reach its peak population in 2064, at around 9.73 billion people, although many countries will see the effects of depopulation much sooner. What would a depopulating world look like? For an extreme case, we can look to Europe in the mid-1300s. They lost about 1/3 of their population to the Black Death.
Emptying Rural Areas
When Europe experienced depopulation during the Medieval era, many of their villages were emptied out and were wiped off the map. Back then, feudalism reigned, and when ownership of a property changed hands, tenants had to pay a fee to their lord. Depopulation got to the point where occasionally, there was nobody to claim this property: either there was nobody left to inherit the property or they didn’t want to pay the fee to claim it.
We’re already seeing the land emptying out in some places. In Japan, there are more houses than people to fill them; there’s even a term for these empty houses: akiya, or ghost houses. Spain is seeing their own share of ghost villages, and other parts of Europe are seeing some of their fields rewilding. As in Medieval Europe, it’s sometimes difficult to find out who owns these homes. Did the owners just move? Did they die and leave heirs?
A Shrinking Workforce
Depopulation also comes with a shrinking workforce. In Medieval Europe, this was the beginning of the end for feudalism (at least in Western Europe; it had a different effect in the East). With fewer workers, peasants found they could demand higher wages. While the government tried to stop this upward pressure in pay by freezing wages, they ultimately found it to be futile. The regular people found themselves more prosperous, while the nobility saw their standard of living shrink.
It doesn’t seem like Western countries have experienced this yet—the competition for good jobs is still stiff, and the pandemic doesn’t seem to help—this will probably be the ultimate result. This hopefully will lead to more livable wages for people at the bottom of the pay scale, although the wealthy may see their earnings erode. Combined with fewer demands on resources, the standard of living for many will hopefully go up.
Not Enough People to do the Work?
One of the drawbacks to a smaller population is that there might not be enough people to do the work. As the population shrinks, the population is likely to get older, and it might be difficult to provide them with proper health care. There may be fewer workers to provide specialized products. Some of this downside may be offset by the use of robots.
There are some regions of the world with a total fertility rate that is still higher than replacement rate, although the fertility rate is trending downward overall. Immigration could offset some of these population losses eventually. Either way, in 100 years, the world is likely to look completely different than it does now.
