It's been a friendly crypto weekend, so everyone who was starting to embrace the idea that we were perhaps in a bear market, is now wondering whether they should go back and delete those "Bitcoin's going to $24K" tweets.

I maintain my one single indicator that I actually trust under all market conditions: Bitcoin hates good news, and loves bad news.

Everything else tends to rock off balance from whatever Bitcoin does, so unless it's a full-on pump and dump, the volume is going to get pulled in one direction or another based on what the whale+guv world thinks about the market.

Are we seeing an actual shift back on track for a bull market, though?

It's one of those things I'm happy to discuss, but not a big fan of predicting. I find sometimes it makes more sense to comment on the market and lay out the potential scenarios, than it is to try to bet on a winning direction. The truth is, nobody knows, but the 'experts' are always keen to say 'I said that!' when they do happen to guess right.

So, here's what I see.

It is always, always, alwayssssss gonna come down to what the regulators try to do to scare the market, first and foremost. Unless the international tides change and the globalist mindset truly turned towards freedom, there is too much incentive for them to meddle in our happy little crypto bubble to think that government hooplah won't move the market. The thing is, there is a lot of "freedom" money in Bitcoin and top assets, and I'm a firm believer that every time the Commies come gunning for Bitcoin, there's a few hundred million dollars of pump on its way, just to 'stick it to the man'.

But, then there's the real, genuine market at large. Most investors, no matter how much bravado they place out there, are very skittish. They take big risks, then think about it and get paranoid "oh no, what if I'm wrong?" and it only takes a little skepticism to make them take a safety loss. At the same time, there is a lot of incentive to steer people in the wrong direction, so there is a lot of over-inflated margin-calling and futures derivatives throwing things off balance as well. Remember, liquidations are a real thing, and it has to feel at least a little bit silly when you get wrekt and you weren't even betting on a real asset; just the parallel idea of an asset.

So, I refuse to be blindly optimistic when I see a good 10% here or there in either direction. The bottom isn't necessarily in, because just when you think "that's it, it finally reached the final line of support" it can tank lower. But, it takes a lot of energy, and I mean a LOT of economic energy to pump upwards. Truly, any massive move upwards for the entire market is a sign that something more than just a few new entries is involved. The odds are always against a real bull market, even when it is already a bull market. Why? Well, if you consider how many are already in over their heads, and how brief the times are that we see a peak, for anyone who is already out at a loss, each successive time they are less likely to have funds to re-invest, and they are likely to have fewer and fewer if they continue to take a risk. Those who bought the top and are waiting to fill a sell order, may not be re-entering until those funds are available again. Meanwhile, there simply isn't that much fresh new money entering... yet.

So, as far as any real prediction coming from Gordon, the truth is that I do believe in the potential for a real bull market, and I think we have seen the signs of what the market can do. It all comes down to whether any regulators actually desire true clarity, or just the manipulation that comes along with it.

There are very, very, very bad signs tied in to the lengthy Commie bills in my U.S. government, and the signs are, that they are trying to trick some very cleverly worded clamps down on freedom. These are things that will tighten the noose for decades if they get through, and there seems to be very little opposition of any real backbone saying or doing anything about it. But, Commies are also always huge hypocrites, and they embrace the most dubious forms of Capitalism in the form of low-level Fascism. What's good for the goose...

They want truly scarce assets and they know which coins have it. They will unleash some form of free market stuff for ERC's as well, because there are some strong ties between ETH and globalism. I personally want to see the token market succeed and to innovate, but I'm not blind to the hypocrisy that extends through that market as well.

The best chance we have at a real bull market, is for it to benefit the very people we wish we were putting an economic end to, but that wave will benefit everyone who has been sticking with it all this time.

At some point, we will see whether all traditional hodlers will need to actually take some profit and offend their very stern view on fiat, and that may move the market in some interesting directions as well.

My hope is that we see a series of weeks where the small climbs can simply hold and not dart back down when the next end-of-month liquidations kick in. If we can see some confidence in each new level, then I believe it is possible that there is too much positivity for a government rug-pull to kill the real bull market coming. But again, I don't make predictions. I DO, anticipate what potentially good things can come.

Let's hope for reasons to remain hopeful!

On that... weird note, Crypto Gordon Freeman, the free man, for now... out.