What is Bitcoin ? trying to understand it is not easy task. Some thoughts and thesis

What is Bitcoin ? trying to understand it is not easy task. Some thoughts and thesis

By al998 | Bitcoin future | 12 Oct 2020


Haters or believers, value zero or 1 million for a bitcoin ?
We attribute value to people, to a painting or a yacht, to gold, money and today indeed bitcoin.
What is bitcoin ? why is it important to classify it ?
Taxes of course is the main issue that has kept mass usage from exploding till now.
It is clear to me that uncertainty of doing something wrong with tax authorities can get messy.
Ten years have passed since bitcoin algorithm was created and even the United States IRS poorly declares (notice 2014/21) that
virtual currency is a digital representation of value that functions as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and/or a store of value.

So what is bitcoin, is it a currency ?

It does not behave like a currency because of its limited amount, its proof of work scheme and virtually impossible anonymity. 

BIS says :"the peer-to-peer element of the new technology has the potential to provide anonymity features that are similar to those of cash but in digital form". This is not quite exact.
Cash is anonymous, Bitcoin anonymity is impossible, once you cash out in fiat money the transaction will link you immediately to your crypto address.
Sending and receiving bitcoins is like writing under a pseudonym.
If an author’s pseudonym is ever linked to his identity, everything he ever wrote under that pseudonym will now be linked to him.
In Bitcoin, your pseudonym is the address to which you receive Bitcoin. Every transaction involving that address is stored forever in the blockchain.
If your address is ever linked to your identity, every transaction will be linked to you.
Shortage and deflation are the main characters of Bitcoin, the opposite of money.
Proof of work concept : when central banks print money to revive economies, they somewhat cheat because behind this printing there is
nothing, no creation of value at all and no assets that guarantee it; on the contrary the more they print the more there is a risk that the
currency will eventually loose value and plunge to zero in case of hyperinflation.
History is full of currencies eventually gone bust, last but not least Venezuela and Ghana.
Besides in every nation where local currency has switched into "sinking failure mode" people have heavily turned to crypto as a hedge, often
paying huge premiums respect to the real price. So the general perception of bitcoin is not of a currency to spend but a store of value to keep.
Bitcoin is created only through complex algorithm calculations, no cheating.
No work, no creation of bitcoins.
So we could say that bitcoins are backed by algos being created.
Bitcoins are capped at 21 million "coins". Once this amount is reached no more will be mined (should happen in 2140).
Every 4 years the yearly bitcoin inflation is algorithmically reduced by an astonishing 50% and the next
halving will happen in May 2020 bringing its inflation rate from 3.8% to 1.8%.
At this point bitcoin's inflation rate will be lower than gold's which stands at 2.5% roughly.
Price growth of bitcoin does indeed prove again that it cannot be a currency; even if this asset is only 10 years old
it has grown exponentially in just 10 years from nothing to 11200$ today. Currencies do not behave in such way.
So no, bitcoin cannot be considered a currency. The same is for all cryptos which have a limited supply.
Whereas unlimited supply cryptos, referred to as altcoins or tokens, could be easily assimilated to currencies, infinite and inflationary even
if based on proof of work.

Is Bitcoin a commodity ?

I better agree with USA (IRS) or certain Asian countries who have asserted that bitcoin could be a store of value or a commodity,
still not convincing, but it clears the path towards a store of value concept.
Local currency failing = local mass flee to anything other than the currency itself and nowadays Bitcoin and cryptos are included.

Satoshi himself wrote :

“In this sense, it's more typical of precious metal. Instead of the supply changing to keep the value the same, the supply is predetermined and the value changes.
As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases.”

and also :

“As a thought experiment, imagine there was a base metal as scarce as gold but with the following properties: [not useful/no utility].
And one special, magical property: can be transported over a communications channel.”

Commodities though represent tangible assets.
Bitcoin could be thought of as a digital commodity, indeed it is a scarce intangible asset, an algorithm :
- deflationary with very limited supply;
- easy to trade on reliable exchanges;
- easy and fast to transfer/spend all over the world within minutes

Is bitcoin an intangible asset ?

Usually pure intangible assets are difficult to value, they can be worth nothing or millions because of the uncertainty of future benefits.
Intangible assets are long term assets, non physical but rather intellectual property. In any case these kind of assets like patents, technologies
and brand names are recorded on balance sheets so yes, they are attributed a value but it becomes difficult to give them a fair value if you decide to trade them, could take ages, complicated.
Bitcoin on the opposite is easy to trade and transfer with a simple click.
It has an immediate and certain value the day you decide to trade it.


Is bitcoin a decentralised intangible ownership of a new born digital commodity ? May we call it digital gold ?

Extracting metals and minerals implies polluting rivers and devastating the territory, often uncontaminated and wild before human aggression. 
The more the minerals are rare the more earth we destroy and contaminate to find them. Bad for our home, bad for future generations.
Mining bitcoin is totally virtual, harmless to our planet except for electricity consumption. Gradually we can turn to clean energy and the road is set alrerady to acheive the goal. What is worse ?
The biggest advantage of mining cryptos is the respect of soil and nature.


Bitcoin and centralisation ops sorry decentralisation

Reports show that bitcoin mining hashrate is 74% controlled by Chinese and now China National Development and Reform Commission is on the move requesting a ban on the business. Decentralisation would be restored, mining Bitcoin could slow to records, and halving has gone through in May 2020. Every four years a halving occurs. 
Scarcity becomes a draught.

Conclusions

Is bitcoin the result of the world's most complicated and esponencially growing algorythm or is it the algorythm itself ?

In conclusion I would dare say Bitcoin is a unique newborn asset class which cannot be assimilated to any other asset class but indeed 

has proven to be a store of value .

Bitcoin is around "only" since 2009 but has proven it is not only here to stay, rapidly creating new professional figures, jobs, companies, careers, etc. (+4000% since 2016 and 2018 has been a great year too, 2019 +517%) . Bitcoin today is an asset class worth holding in a portfolio, no matter what haters say.
Besides different news and reports say JP Morgan (yes Jamie Dimon) is registering the most blockchain job openings and the US dollar backed JPM coin for speedy lightning transactions inside the company and said in a report that “blockchain is laying the foundation for digital money.”
Bank for International Settings openly speaks of its own possible future cryptocurrency CBDC (central bank digital currency).China has already implemented the crypto Yuan and started transactions already with it.
The European Union has reported in September 2020 that it will come out with a regulation on cryptos soon.
Crypto swings of course can be huge we all know, normal in a new born world of fast cryptography evolution.
Personally better have a repentance rather than a regret, better loose an egg today than a hen-house tomorrow.
Most of all I study and experiment cryptos, otherwise I have a perception that soon I could end up a dinosaur (my kids indeed already do address me like that).
If I don't understand something it does not mean I have to reject it, refuse it or outlaw it, addressing it as a fraud, a scam or rat poison; better simply ignore it quietly without the risk of having to pass as the one fool who missed the train.

 

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al998
al998

i come from the banking business, left back in 2015 after 20 years, 10 of which passed in the prop trading desk (arbitrage, long/short, stock futures etc.) to be an entrepeneur. Happy to have left. Since 2016 investor in cryptos.


Bitcoin future
Bitcoin future

BITCOIN, COINS AND ALTCOINS/TOKENS, what a mess ! Or is it not ? Personal thoughts and thesis

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