Well its official, Nothing to see here, another 'seasonal flu' (possibly re-engineered to be worse for those 'short on air')?
Political Leaders Around the World have hit the COVID19 Lockdown Voter Resistance Wall...
BTC Hard Value- shining through the Chaos, Ready to rise to Solid new heights in 2020- Sept US $11K, Summer 2021 US $20K
#BTC imo, has "hit the floor" to US $7k and, is now poised to ramp up through the Summer of 2020 to a September peak just prior to the US 2020 Election, where I expect opposing views will see the price go sideways.
The real question is what trajectory will BTC take on its way to a September Peak, dragging the quality coins and tokens with them?
A Nice Arc or a Roller Coaster ride? IMO likely the latter so buyer beware, stay focused on the 2 year, 1 year and 1/2 year 'bottom' trend lines.
I think a reasonable #Bitcoin re-forecast, shifting my earlier projected end of summer peak, where I had a BTC US $ 12K peak prior to COVID19 lock-down measures, sees BTC to likely to crest between US $10K to 11K before the US 2020 elections in September then, "run sideways" in the face of opposing political platforms for awhile until we get a decision and a new presidential term.
After the election, it's anyone's call how fast BTC will ramp to US 20K, as US political leader platforms vying for the presidency have yet to solidify. That said, BTC's hard store of value and improvements to Lightning will be clear for even the crypto "newbie" to see, a new type crypto investor showing up in big numbers in 2021, racing away from fiat and government over-reach.
What about BAT?- 2X Current Market Value by September? Yup, maybe more if the Online Advertiser Buyers finally Wake up.
I do expect my BAT earlier predicted 2020 Jan to Aug. ramp up to be 50% less or 2X the current price (about US $ 0.16) and peak a bit later in September 2020. Clearly, 'Advertising Spend' has been curtailed by many companies (awaiting their bailout) given the current focus of most companies to cut costs via labor force head count reductions in the face of reduced public company stock prices and generally less market demand for their products and services (given the unemployment levels are at all time record levels everywhere).
What Ad spend there is in 2020 will be more "targeted", which favours BAT purchases to place ads on the Brave Network by the savvy marketeer over say, 'mind numbing" purchases of "eyeball volume" via the current Google Ads program. So BAT has more upside than BTC imo toward the end of the year through the holiday seasons, given most all companies will be scrambling for new ways to recover back to old revenue targets and attract more new clients.
How Bankers really think?
The Bank Junk Bond Purchase Circus - Buy at a discount , Mark it up and Sell that Junk to the FED as packaged junk.
The current World Bond Market Total Valuation, which is about 30X bigger in value than the public stock markets combined, is under going a massive shift of Bond holder Ownership, as rating services rapidly lower once B rated bonds (think Airlines) to basically "junk" status. Those companies which will eventually recover or be merged into new and existing companies will see their bond paper sold at discount to banks and private equity, only to be sold with a Markup to the FED in the US.
The new US combo US Treasury/FED is now officially under the oversight of the US Treasury (managed by the US Govt) is now also run by Jay Powell and this new hybrid govt/private entity is charged by the US govt to continue to buy both public stock and Corporate Bond placing them on their Balance sheets.
What's next? Inter-Central Bank Digital Currency- Old Local Currency for New Local Currency Bail ins- By the Tax Payer
For the legacy banking systems and public markets to stay competitive the CX Customer Experience must improve and that means 24X7 services and same day if not hour settlement of all buy and sell transactions. Are the legacy public exchanges (NYSE, NASDQ, etc..) ready to merge and or acquire and merge with those Central and Distributed crypto exchanges in the coming months? I expect one or two legacy players to break rank and "pony up" to buy a few of the leading crypto central exchanges. Meanwhile expect more privacy coins like McAfee's Ghost with full DEX Distributed EXchange support to pop up, as runaway inflation caused by all the money printing has the herd looking for other options other than metals and fiat, which means crypto generally stands to benefit big time.
BTC Post US 20202 election- Well positioned as the best "hard store of value"- Watch out for the 2020 Late Seasonal Dips
Like last year and the year prior, I expect Black Friday shopping to see BTC liquidation to fiat to buy goods to be up over last year, as money will be tight and this means a lower dip than last year, by how much is anyone's guess. Expect a short minor recovery and then another dip into the end of year holiday period in the BTC price, before we see BTC recover past the September predicted peak by early February 2021.
I do expect BTC to break-out thereafter, finally up to US $20K and beyond by Summer 2021. It will be interesting to check back on this predictive post to see how close BTC comes to hitting that US $20K mark, with likely double the average daily volume we have seen in 2020, once the BTC lightning
What is clear is, BTC will out perform most anything moving forward, as will some of the quality altcoins and tokens like BAT, and Ethereum and watch for the newer, 'Stable Coins' to do a lot of volume and act as trading repositories as really 'Wiley' investors play both the fiat and crypto markets more fluidly than ever before.
Be wise and prosper...
TK over and out.