Ok, So When The Heck is CHECKMATE - Bitcoin

By davidgyoung | Alternative Investing | 29 Mar 2024


Admittedly - we felt the cuts would come before publicly announced further bond buying.  Maybe it won't go down that way.  So what. 

Here's a few recent posts here that are relevant to this topic:

BOJ Tries to End YCC and Bitcoin Impact

Fed Jawbones on Easing and Cuts

There is nothing stopping the Fed from both buying bonds again AND leaving rates unchanged or even hiking.  We stand by our projection that upon the 1st actual cut, rates on the short end will be cut 400bps+ in less than 12 months. 

So, when is it all over?  When is what all over? The what here is the jawboning and back and forth games played in the financial system where the holier than thou masters of the universe act as though all is well and their crystal ball will fix everything.  The CHECKMATE for which we remain on alert is when the market calls the Fed out for the final time and acts with impunity with regards to the Fed's need to not only print and buy bonds but do so in perpetuity.

That is CHECKMATE.  Are we there yet?

No.

What gets us there?

Currently we have the Chinese perhaps already buying assets along with strong signals implying they will devalue the Yuan (again).  The BOJ claims to be ending YCC and QE, yet they are already holding panic meetings about the decline in the Yen in the face of actions that should be supporting the Yen.  The Fed still controls the so called "world reserve currency" and they have not yet moved past jawboning.

A couple of recent U.S. bond auctions (5yr and 7yr) were sizzling hot (meaning good for the Treasury).  Buyers were lined up, which is no surprise since the Fed recently told everyone they would soon buy up the short end.  Buyers are front running the Fed (duh).  But, why not 10yr or 30yr auctions Janet?  Ok, we won't press on those types of embarrassing questions that might make a public official unsettled. 

CHECKMATE occurs possibly when the Fed starts to expand the balance sheet yet again with a new "asset purchase program" which is code for buying US debt.  They are lining up the Primary Dealers to take this garbage jammed down their throats. 

When this happens, and IF the market reacts in a manner that shows it expects this to be the last QE ever, then that is CHECKMATE.  

Why is it the last QEBecause it will never end

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davidgyoung
davidgyoung Verified Member

BTC since 2013. Investor. Entrepreneur. Always looking to learn and develop.


Alternative Investing
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