This is NOT investment advice.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Add Bitcoin Rewards To Your Apps - Engage/Monetize - sMiles API/SDK
About That Thought
Progress - maybe. It's like Bitcoin is this price discovery mechanism and resource allocating mechanism for energy in general. As time goes on those that inject capital into energy exploration/development will ask "why are we doing this if it doesn't also produce Bitcoin for us?" Bitcoin driving the capital decisions for energy. That's a big deal. Still working on it.
Bombs Away . . . . . . . . . . Liftoff Delayed or Cancelled?
Entering this most recent week we had a framework and scenario where ES tackled the 5900/6000 zone and "breakout" and BTC tussled with $105.9Kish while looking up at taking a swing again at $109.5Kish. Geopolitics zoomed back to the top of the list of factors/narratives, and the subsequent bombing and air warfare sent oil soaring. Consequently, this is calling into question both the viability and sustainability of the economy to crawl its way forward onto a growth path and the Fed's willingness to ease in the near or intermediate term when given a gift that easily allows JPow to continue shrugging and say "well we need to monitor the impact from oil price shocks on inflation blah, blah, blah".
Quite naturally, market will keep very, very close eye on oil to assess how much escalation the market does or does not need to discount (Market Ear at ZeroHedge.com):
Now - prior to this week oil was on a run anticipating more tension and conflict and supply chain threats, but we can see that oil was not trading overall in a bullish manner. Let's see how much firepower and for how long these recent oil longs plan on hanging around. It may very well be that in the very near term, both ES and BTC will obsess about whether or not oil is vaulting way above the trend line shown and extending RSI even higher . . . . . . . . in other words if the market thinks the conflict is that disruptive then the trading in oil will reflect that by looking even more extreme.
Right now, I would say both Risk On and Bitcoin are under pressure for sure, but we don't know yet if we have a breakdown into a new correction or worse. Terrain can get tough and conditions can change or bait can appear - male puma has to adapt and deal with it.
No shame in staying light and nimble with trades/hedges (The Market Ear at ZeroHedge.com), after all eventually the threads get torched when tightening the screws too much:
The other major factor heading in to this last week, and a crucial factor for the 'Melt Up' and Option B (and hence Risk On and BTC), was the 2x LT auctions Bessent faced. Both auctions went well by all accounts and debt for sure benefited from a doomsday move and "flight to safety" with the missiles flying. Even with that, though I still see very significant pressures pushing yields up, it was a good week for the Bond market to get through the auctions without any disasters and the market digesting more of BOMO, future balance sheet expansion, and this Fed/Treasury dynamic and transition we are approaching.
UST 10YR Weekly
Below find some very familiar themes to what we have been hammering for a while now . . . . . . . . . intriguing notes from a top Goldman Trader (like Bessent, he even spells out Option B):
Bitcoin Monthly
Bitcoin Weekly
Bitcoin Daily
Liquidation Heat Map - 2 Week Time Frame
Bitcoin Bottom Line:
- As depicted, for now still in a pretty solid position on higher time frames
- Bitcoin is for sure under pressure on lower time frames and placed back inside a box if you will, almost as if it is following or leading ES as usual they can't figure out who is in front or not - check Risk On/Off notes on oil
- $109.5Kish, $105.9Kish, $103Kish . . . . . . . . . . down to $95-$98Kish (97K more precisely) might be prudent to focus here and assess the action
- Early in the new week should know how much geo-poly will smack ES/BTC and take a rational look at that vis a vis the levels shown here and mentioned repeatedly
Risk On/Off
We know there was a big geopolitical event that though somewhat expected still provided a big jolt and shock to markets. Let's see what actually happened in terms of Price/Volume and Accumulation/Distribution.
SPY Weekly
Spoos definitely got hit Friday but overall it was not a distribution week. The weekly candle saw volume decline notably from the prior week but above recent green weeks as well - maintain vigilance.
SPY 4HR
On a lower time frame the damage could have been a lot worse.
TiNA 4HR
On a lower time frame TiNA appears a bit aggravated and angry but it could be a whole lot worse. More green volume than red last couple sessions combined including Friday actually. Light and nimble.
SLV Weekly
Sticking with same thing I have said for years if one needs a ranking order (Bitcoin, Silver, Uranium). SLV actually held up quite bullishly overall for the week.
The Boomerang: Nomura's experts watching the slingshot back in positioning and chasing from the Trade War rattling the status quo . . . . . . that Boomerang could be still swinging back to equilibrium. In addition to Junk Debt sending strong signals, we have this to consider from The Market Ear at ZeroHedge.com.
Risk On/Off Bottom Line:
- Given that the technical damage thus far is relatively modest (if we are being open minded and honest) my senses keep leading me to oil . . . . . . . where oil moves off that sky high RSI and upper bound Sunday PM into Monday AM will tell us where ES goes
- Oil's chart looks terrible overall, yet they bought it right up to that upper trend line but not beyond . . . . why???
- MOMOs squeezed out all the lemon juice, leverage entering orbit levels already, who's gonna bring the MF MOMO for the next leg up???
- If there ever was a time for an ES pre-market jawbone . . . . .'Melt Up' much more favorable than watching cities meltdown
- Among other things the market is a discounting mechanism . . . . . . if a nuclear threat were dismantled it's bullish
- It was a big event, is a big event, and is a huge threat . . . . . . . heading into Monday open technical damage was modest and junk debt didn't really budge
Keep It Real . . . . . . Wage Growth and Positive Yields
In my view a big chunk of getting the economy back on track and building momentum involves keeping it real. We need to see positive real wage growth and positive real yields. Not advocating for bonds as LT savings, but in the here and now positive real yields are important. People are at least gaining ground with core PCE around 2%. Wage growth means something when it eclipses inflation. I believe this will be very important next 3-18 months to build back.
Brazil and Game Theory
Reports keep coming in related to Brazil taking the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve more seriously and even advancing it.
Deep Breath . . . . . . Bigger Picture Bitcoin and Credit
Higher time frames. Lower time frames. Volume Profiles. Money Flow Green. Money Flow Red. Quantiles??? Yeah I hear ya it can get confusing. It is also CRUCIAL to be aware you are in a multi-dimensional game/contest here. We tend to obsess about the minute by minute action. I am constantly shifting back and forth between time frames so I have to keep track. We might be very bearish locally at a lower time frame but very bullish on higher time frames. A platoon could be getting roughed up in a skirmish, but the battalion might be in very good shape still overall. Or vice versa.
Bitcoin and debt, Bitcoin and bonds. Below find an excellent set of data from BitcoinMagazinePro.com depicting the correlation between Bitcoin and High Yield Bonds. Note - this chart depicts bond prices and bond prices move inversely with bond yields.
High Yield Debt is a very strong leading indicator for economic growth and in effect 'Risk On' if you will. As economies strengthen cyclically and otherwise investors pile into the riskiest debt to ride a wave that lifts up this type of debt. If the lower quality of companies and balance sheets are getting a lift, how well do you think the top performers are doing? If junk trades well then the best companies are very likely flourishing which means the economy is likely doing well.
Adoption
$1 or more, who cares? I do. I see this as a better assessment than tracking whales if we are talking adoption. Each of these wallets might be a new human being experiencing Bitcoin for the first time.
STX Weekly
STX Daily
STX activity:
Coinbase Bitcoin Cashback Credit Card
As reported by BitcoinMagazine.com, Coinbase is launching a Bitcoin cashback rewards credit card. This provides even more signal towards several things in my view: 1) Coinbase continues to lean towards Bitcoin much more so than they have, 2) Stablecoins and the "blend" of BTC/stablecoin and our credit based society, 3) validating the use of Bitcoin as the reward itself, 4) and using Bitcoin as collateral emphasized by launching another BTC related credit product.
If credit was going away with 'HyperBitcoinization', then why are Coinbase and Gemini going head to head on Bitcoin cashback credit cards?
Mining Update
Short Nikkei still (up slightly now, sticking). Long Dollar (even, might add). Dumped half of a smaller UVIX this time early in the week as best as I could and the remainder mid morning Friday (so I did not enjoy that further lift later Friday). Will always look at UVIX as an option but if oil fizzles UVIX will plummet this week in my view. Sent TiNA a text and established a very minor position Friday late. Established another "straddle" if you will when coin traded vicinity $105.9Kish. Closed my prior levered fiat BTC short very early in week at a loss and then cashed out the levered long at a profit. Added long both a Short and Long fiat based levered Bitcoin position vicinity $105.9Kish.
If the current Weekly closes both below $109.5Kish and $105.9Kish very likely I'll add more to the short exposure. If we do go down and test $95-$98Kish I am already levered short (as a hedge) from $105.9Kish. Ditch the long if the pivot plays out and ride the short to the next levels (or vice versa).
Earn Bitcoin Every Single Day
Download sMiles and win and earn every single day.
Earn Free Bitcoin Playing Games
Get Free Bitcoin Automatically
