Bitcoin Observations
This is NOT investment advice.
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When Does BOMO Get Bitcoin FOMO?
Bitcoin Monthly
UST 10YR 4HR
Entering this week we were sitting on some crucial pivot points (ES 6000/BTC $105.8Kish) and staring down the barrel of 2x LT UST auctions. Looking above bonds seemed to like the 10YR auction on Wednesday for now with bond prices getting a nice little bump (SOMA was there but inconsequential). ES drifted above 6000 and BTC briskly bounced higher starting earlier this week.
The 'Melt Up' Up, Up, Up . . . . . . . . Up?
I absolutely realize that it "feels like" stocks will never go down! It's important to consider (at least this is my framework and construct of it) that the 'Melt Up' yes can define a trading period like these last few weeks where stocks seem Invincible. It goes way beyond that though. I am describing more so all the wheels in motion moving in the same general direction (M2, fiscal spend, political/economic reality of we have to grow, debt issuance, etc.). There will be very aggressive corrections in my view, but the 'Melt Up' is here in my opinion. It reminds me of when the Fed first initiated QE which lead to POMO ultimately. Collectively - we didn't fully grasp it at the time but the Fed put a massive Put beneath equities for more than a decade after that.
Goldman says the equity rally is junk. For the most part, I strongly agree with that. But that doesn't mean we aren't in a broader 'Melt Up' and not just this local trading one.
Bitcoin Weekly
Bitcoin Daily
BitcoinMagazinePro.com Flagship MVRV Z-Score Hovers Modestly
Purely from a Technical Analysis standpoint - I certainly would not claim Bitcoin is dirt cheap here. However - plenty of room to run as well based on prior historical patterns.
Liquidation Heat Map - Two Week Time Frame
Funding Rates
BitcoinMagazinePro.com lays it out . . . . . . . . recent shorts putting their hand on a hot stove?
Bitcoin Bottom Line:
- Pushing up against breaking to new ATH, key level now $109.5Kish (more or less nothing above it)
- We have both Monthly and Weekly Money Flow Green . . . . . . . in my view this is absolutely not a set of conditions where I would be stubbornly holding a short out of feelings or principle . . . . . in my opinion
- You never know what can or will happen, but things appear quite strong in my humble view IF persistent demand arrives and persists (moon still partially blocked from our view)
Risk On/Off
Below are a couple of snippets from another excellent piece from ZeroHedge.com. It's highly technical and can be confusing looking at VOL dynamics mixed up with complex derivatives and a bunch of other "stuff". We all know there are things in the markets biased towards the bullish side, especially for equities.
Suffice to say, according to Nomura at least, equities need more time to digest the shocks provided to the system by the Trade War. It's almost like the Trade War threw a huge Boomerang out there and as we go about our daily lives, that Boomerang is still in the process of returning. Nomura's experts think there is plenty of room to run as the subsequent chasing and positioning has led to a major case of playing catch up resulting in the equity market actually strengthening as we work through that 5900/6000 dynamic.
And the Buyback Beast is there waiting as well:
Goldman says to be careful (of course I agree being cautious at all times) and wonders geez how much more lemon juice can the MOMOs possibly squeeze out of these lemon securities short squeezed up?
Economy Recovering/Expanding Or Headed Off A Cliff?
Personally - I do not know. I mean, how would I truly 'know' anyways? Ask Cramer? My senses are that we are transitioning into a new era. My senses are suggesting that. But - I do know that among the best signals for junk debt, this High Yield Bond ETF, just flashed a Green Dot on the Monthly Money Flow. I also know that the Monthly Candle for April shown below is extremely bullish with gargantuan volume and closing way near the top of the monthly range. Who's smarter anyways, debt or equity? Your call.
And for now at least, we have this:
Risk On/Off Bottom Line:
- I'm in no hurry to line up any meaningful shorts (scalps excluded) when I see junk bonds flip Green on the Monthly Money Flow
- Yes we are way, way, way overdue for a correction, but we also just "broke out" of the 5900/6000 (for now) and Smallies have a very recent bigger breakout, so dunno???? New ATHs and then a sharp pullback?
- Equities "seem ok" with the Trade War as it stands right now, more or less an expectation that "something will happen" and "it will work out" . . . . . . . .though Section 899 still looms
- Watch the IBD Groups
- Ukraine/Russia, Iraq embassy emptying, Iran nuclear facilities targeted, LA Riots plus new cities obviously targeted, a new Black Swan, Japan, yields, economy puttering too slowly, etc. . . . . . . we all understand crazy times in more ways than one
- Debt not free and clear yet in my view, far from it
Alaska Probed For Massive Flared Gas Bitcoin Mining Operations
The point is not who politically is for or against this or which startup is or is not involved. The point here is the concept and the signal. The floodgates are starting to open more in favor of using any and all energy sources that we as a society can use safely and ethically to mine Bitcoin. Flared natural gas that is 'unused' is a huge opportunity. The biggest thing here to me is getting Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining embedded into the energy ecosystem. Once the industry latches on to converting excess or wasted energy into Bitcoin, it's hard to imagine how mining would ever not be embedded moving forward.
BitcoinMagazine.com Highlights Factors Surrounding Bitcoin L2s
Scaling Bitcoin . . . . . . . . well that's a term that has evolved and had its share of ups and downs over the years. Here's a very helpful piece from BitcoinMagazine.com including text from Satoshi and Finney on the inevitable need for Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions.
Stacks Simmers Serenely
Rejected on the Weekly at the EMA shown and kinda chillin' out with the Weekly Money Flow still in the Green.
STX Weekly
STX Daily
BitcoinMagazinePro.com Video On NEW Buy Signal Even at These Levels
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Matthew Wong
Night Crossing
