This is NOT investment advice.
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Bitcoin Weekly
My interpretation affirms what I have been saying here recently. We are in a somewhat neutral position. There are productive and constructive signs such as that most recent complete weekly candle highlighted in green. Overall, this weekly chart does not tell me we are "off to the races". Kind of mehhhhh we'll see and still no green Money Flow turned on full blast that's for sure.
This is a Higher Time Frame chart, meaning in my opinion this chart 'controls' if you will how far Bitcoin can go ultimately. In other words, if we are going to move very significantly in either direction, major signals will ultimately show up quite clearly in this time frame.
Bitcoin Daily
Lots of blue neutral. Does it want to get going? Looks like it wants to fly but just can't get the volume, conviction, and MF behind it full force.
Bitcoin 4HR
Bitcoin Bottom Line:
- still a very fluid situation
- constructive recent action, some ever so slight signs of QQQ divorce or at least a bad fight and breakup possible
- markets overall still 'on edge', BTC showing some productive Relative Strength hints
- need to see the volume and conviction show up and of course the Money Flow turn on notably and in a sustained manner on higher time frames
Risk On/Off
Let's get into a little bit of detail on how I am trying to manage and work this. The market is many things. One of the biggest things the market does is act as a discounting mechanism. This must be understood as well in the context of differing time frames. An one hour chart might turn super bullish but the weekly might still look horrible, or vice versa. In other words - I can still be extremely skeptical and relatively bearish on the economy and markets as a whole but still shift on a trend change if presented.
Are we back in Risk On? I personally don't see it that way at this point. But - some signs of life and we could in fact be inside an ugly and crappy looking counter trend move.
As Risk On shifted dramatically into Risk Off the small caps got really blasted. Yet - with an "evening out of the score" in the Trade War one could argue Smallies would benefit the most in the post Trump Reset world. The market is a discounting mechanism as stated above.
Let's take a look at the Small Caps to see if there are any signs. The below is a 4HR chart - please keep that in mind. There are a few things that suggest we could be in a little bit of a move. However - given the scenario and environment we still know things are very chaotic, volatile, and the market's tip of the spear has paltry and laughable liquidity (i.e. doesn't take much to flip the market's direction in a flash).
Now let's look at the QQQ on a daily chart - among the primary barometers the market looks at to assess Risk On/Off.
The QQQ has to drag around literally the world's largest companies by market cap, and let's not overlook that the tariffs and reshaping of global trade will have the most impact on the firms getting the most of their revenue overseas along with those whose supply chains and costs structures are the most impacted. QQQ has baggage. Smallies are light and nimble and more reactive shall we shay. Something to keep in mind. Let's see what happens this week. Light and nimble.
Struck me how with the NVDA tariff hit, Powell again pouring cold water on cuts, and more drama . . . . . . . . yet equities kinda hung in there all things considered. Did not set new lows. Seems like nearly the entire ecosystem of 'experts' and 'analysts' are very bearish. Hmmmmmmmm.
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