While investors followed the movements of Bitcoin and gold, those observing the commodities market found coffee to be the standout asset of the week . Arabica coffee futures contracts registered a daily increase of 16.19%, the largest single-day gain this century, driven by delays in the Brazilian harvest, reduced stocks, and climate concerns related to the El Niño phenomenon.

In addition to Arabica, Robusta coffee also showed a strong increase, advancing 8.83% in the same period and reaching its highest level in the last five months. With this, the price of coffee has accumulated a recovery of approximately 43% since the lows recorded in early June , attracting the attention of investors who normally concentrate their bets on cryptocurrencies or precious metals.

Coffee prices rise after delays in the Brazilian harvest.

The main factor behind the strong increase in coffee prices continues to be the supply scenario. Brazil, the world's largest producer of the commodity, is facing a slower pace in the 2026/27 harvest.

According to data from the consulting firm Safras & Mercado, only 52% of the harvest had been completed by July 1st. During the same period last year, the figure was 60%, while the average for the last five years reached 55%.

Furthermore, weather conditions continue to increase market concerns. Data from Somar Meteorologia indicated a lack of rainfall in Minas Gerais during the week ending July 5th. The state accounts for the largest Brazilian production of Arabica coffee.

At the same time, Rural Clima warned that the rainfall forecast for the second half of July could damage some crops, precisely during a crucial period for crop development.

Lower inventories are driving up coffee prices.

Another factor driving up coffee prices is the reduction in available stocks on international exchanges.

Certified stocks of Arabica coffee monitored by ICE fell to 366,756 bags, the lowest level recorded in approximately two years and three months. This movement reinforces the perception of lower immediate supply in the international market.

Furthermore, the appreciation of the real against the dollar diminishes the interest of Brazilian producers in expanding exports . According to market reports, many farmers are also choosing to hold back part of their production, waiting for even higher prices before negotiating their lots.

This combination of lower availability, slower exports, and production retention contributed to increased buying pressure on futures contracts.

El Niño increases uncertainty for the next harvest

Concerns are not limited to the current harvest. The market is also closely monitoring forecasts for the coming months.

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of the formation of a "Super El Niño ," a climatic phenomenon that could interfere with the flowering of Brazilian crops between September and October.

If this scenario is confirmed, the productivity of the following harvest could be impacted, further reducing the future supply of coffee and sustaining high prices for a longer period.

Even so, some analysts maintain a more cautious view. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) still projects a record production of 71.9 million bags in Brazil , while Rabobank recently raised its surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags of Arabica coffee.

These projections had put downward pressure on prices in recent weeks. However, recent events have caused the market to revise some of this oversupply scenario.

Technical analysis indicates strength in coffee prices.

In addition to the fundamentals, the chart indicators also reinforce the positive momentum in coffee prices .

In the weekly chart, futures contracts broke out of a downward channel that had been limiting prices since October 2025. The breakout occurred at the end of June and was accompanied by an increase in trading volume, signaling greater participation from buyers.

After overcoming important Fibonacci retracement levels, the market began targeting the region between 363 and 370 cents per pound , considered one of the main long-term resistance zones.

If buyers manage to break through this range, the next technical target becomes the region close to 397 cents, followed by the psychological level of 400 cents per pound.

RSI points to a positive trend, but warns of a possible correction.

In the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also confirms the strengthening of the upward trend.

The indicator broke out of a descending trend line that had limited movements since February 2025 and is currently trading near 75 points.

Although this level demonstrates strong buying pressure, it also signals overbought conditions. Historically, similar levels tend to precede profit-taking movements and minor corrections before the continuation of the main trend.

Nevertheless, analysts note that the outlook remains positive as long as the price of coffee manages to stay above the range of 315 to 319 cents per pound at the daily close.

Coffee prices surpassed Bitcoin and gold in one week.

Even with Bitcoin maintaining its relevance among investors and gold trading near all-time highs, it was the price of coffee that showed the most significant performance of the week among the major global assets .

The more than 16% increase in just one day highlights how factors related to climate, supply, and logistics continue to exert a strong influence on the commodities market. As long as uncertainties surrounding Brazilian production and international stocks persist, the market should remain attentive to upcoming developments, which could define the direction of coffee prices in the coming weeks.