The term altcoin season has been popular since the rise of altcoins and the eruption of the first crypto offers (ICO) in 2017. Essentially, the altcoin season occurs when altcoins are aggregated over Bitcoin and almost all of them lead to huge gains at the same time. The altcoin season is very exciting for crypto traders and most traders are wondering when the altcoin season will begin. For this reason, if altcoin prices usually go up a little, most traders will announce altcoin season from social media. Unfortunately, the news is bad, the altcoin season has ended permanently and the Bitcoin season seems to have arrived.
Domination Ratios Prove That The Altcoin Season Has Not Been Two Years
First, Bitcoin domination rate data proves that the altcoin season is no longer occurring. In fact, the last altcoin season took place two years ago in April-May 2018.
Bitcoin domination rate is obtained by dividing Bitcoin market value by total crypto market value. If the bitcoin domination rate drops significantly, this is a sign that the altcoin season is going on. On the other hand, if the percentage of Bitcoin domination rises significantly, the Bitcoin season continues. A graph of the Bitcoin domination percentage (orange filled line) since 2013 can be displayed below.
The first altcoin season took place between February and June 2017 and coincided with the rise of Ethereum. Bitcoin's dominance percentage fell slightly from 86% to just over 30%, and Ethereum for shortly surpassed the Bitcoin domination rate.
Afterwards, there was a sharp Bitcoin season between June and December 2017, and the dominance percentage of Bitcoin exceeded 63%. Subsequently, the altcoin season came into effect from December 2017 to January 2018, and the dominance percentage of Bitcoin fell to 30%.
Then the last altcoin season took place between April and May 2018, and the Bitcoin domination percentage fell to 10%. Since then, the percentage of Bitcoin domination has consistently exceeded 50% in August 2018, rising to 70% in September 2019.
The important point to note is that the percentage of Bitcoin domination has not seen a sharp decline over the past two years. Therefore, this data is definitive proof that there are no altcoin seasons since April-May 2018.
Reasons for Altcoin Season Ending Permanently
There is no need to look elsewhere to find out why the Altcoin season has not been this long. The biggest two altcoin seasons, by far the biggest, were caused by an explosion in speculation surrounding altcoins, especially by ICOs (first money offers). Every time new ICOs were released, almost all rose instantly and collected tons of funds. Because investors believed in the future of ICOs, they thought it would reach $ 20,000 like Bitcoin.
However, this ICO speculation collapsed in 2018 when the Bitcoin and ICO balloons burst simultaneously. ICO cryptocurrencies quickly depreciated, resulting in huge losses in the number of investors. Also, the market collapse revealed that most ICOs abuse investment money or even fraud. Basically, ICO companies thought that the crypto rally would last forever, and many spent more than they really had, with the expectation that the crypto market would bring tons of funds.
The last nail nailed in the coffin was the government regulators in both China and the United States that shattered ICOs in the 2018 market. Starting or joining an ICO now is illegal in China and the United States, which cut almost all of the money flowing into the ICO area. Also, even ICOs outside the U.S. and China have been closed, because technically even a Chinese or American investor joins an ICO, making the entire ICO illegal. As an example, Telegram ICO, which was closed despite being abroad, can be shown because US investors have participated.
In addition to ICOs being hot and volatile substances in the eyes of the law, investors lost a great deal after the 2017 ICO balloon and caused almost all crypto investors to be very careful even when investing a single satoshi in ICOs.
In other words, investors initially thought that ICOs would collectively come and poured money on them easily, now investors are collectively considering ICOs as scams.
Therefore, the failure of the first ICO boom in 2017 and the resulting tight ICO regulations seem to have permanently ended the altcoin season. The good news is that we are in the middle of a permanent Bitcoin season.