We just had the most severe liquidity events in the crypto market since FTX imploded. $ETH imploded some 25% in 2 hours. Most alt lost in the range of 30% to 50%.

Then Trump relented, and the market rebounded.

But now we have a new trade war standoff with China and another coming with the EU. This has brought prices back down a bit, with the market pricing in a similar change in Trump's posture as soon as he can claim a win.

How can we find bargains in this environment?

1 Stability Check

First, we want to check that are not over-crowded into a "rebound trade." One way to do that is to look at the 25 delta skew on Bitcoin. If it reads 10% or above, the trade is crowded.

Yesterday, it stood in the 7% range, but today it has dropped to 1.72%.

In short, everything is in working order, though I wouldn't expect $BTC to move much.

2 Leveraged Hunting

Let's look at funding rates across exchanges. Are there any coins that traders are too bearish on right now?

We're looking for coins with at least a negative -20% funding rate (for the year). The idea is to bet against these degens, as they serve as a contrarian signal.

It does appear that there are two such coins: $HBAR and $NEAR.

They both have better than an average -30%, and on Binance, where most of the action is, traders are even more bearish.

3 Are There Any R/R Bargains?

If you have a very clear trading signal, events such as the recent ones often highlight prime risk to reward opportunities.

You want to pick coins that are just above your moving average in terms of price. For example, $RSR now stands just 5% above its 200-day moving average.

You'd sell if it dropped below that (risking 5%), and it was recently some 80% higher in price.

That's a 1:16 risk-to-reward ratio. Assuming both possibilities are near equal outcomes, then it's a rational bet.

4 Concluding Thoughts

None of this is financial advice. You'll lose all your money in crypto as it's all gambling. I'm teaching you how to think about bargain-hunting as a process. Specific examples may or may not fit your investment goals.

These three coins could go down more if Trump decides he wants to keep those tariffs against China. $NEAR is linked to NVDA, so Trump's tariffs might actually weigh on $NEAR's recovery. $HBAR was arguably only coming back to earth with its valuation.

Ideally, this process helped your own research.

-Sebastian Purcell, PhD

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