Browsing this site and other cryptocurrency forums I noticed a subject that left me very puzzled, you probably have read about the 50 bitcoins that have been moved from an inactive wallet since 2009, this wallet actually belongs to one of the top 10 miners of bitcoins in the story, but the probability of being Satoshi Nakamoto himself is really quite low as well as the chance of him moving the big bitcoin fortune he acquired, in this post I gathered some information on the subject and I will do an abstraction exercise to final putting my point of view on the subject.
The block mined on 02/09/2009 was, as mentioned above, mined 39 days after the bitcoin genesis block and the address that holds them had not made any other transfers and this was the first time since 2009 that these particular coins were moved, if you pay close attention 40 bitcoins were moved to a wallet where they still hold and another 9.99 bitcoins to another wallet that you distributed to another 30 wallets in a row, making the process of tracking those coins become more complicated (I believe this person did this with a view to privacy). Only with this information it is not possible to conclude that these bitcoins belonged to Satoshi Nakamoto, only to a great holder who was also one of the first miners in history.
Here we have a graph showing that the price reaction of the market was due to the tweet from Whale Alert and not specifically about the movement of bitcoins, we can see that a quick panic took over the market causing it to fall 5% in approximately one hour after the tweet, we know that asymmetric information is a reality of trading in any market, the blockchain is available for everyone to consult and, in theory, anyone with address monitoring software would be able to detect the movement and react in order to profit from it news before it was even known. However, if you are not a person who monitors this type of activity it is good to remember the teachings of the master Nelson Elliot who said that the news can temporarily shake the market but never take it out of its main movement (in the case of bitcoin it is uphill) . In the whale alert's own tweet there are people trying to refute the possibility that it was Satoshi who moved those coins, among them I found a very interesting study from 2013 that mapped the first 50,000 mined blocks:
This study (which you can read in full by clicking on the references at the end of the post) says that Satoshi probably mined around 1,000,000 bitcoins between 2009 and 2010, he assumed that because Satoshi created the bitcoin he kept the network active when very few people were mining.
During 2009 the mining activity was so low that it was kept active on the minimum accepted difficulty, and blocks were created at a lower rate than one every 10 minutes. It’s plausible that even if Satoshi wanted to turn off his miner after a while, he may have finally decided to let it run until seeing more activity.
Going further into the study he presents numerous data pointing out the veracity of the information captured in this study. In summary, what interests us is that the blue lines are the blocks that have been mined but not used and the green lines those that have been used. Realize that there is a pattern at the beginning of the graph, showing that the same computational force was used to mine from the beginning of until the block number 15000 which most likely belongs to Satoshi since he was the first miner.
Enlarging the image we can reach exactly the block 3654 that was moved recently, the line that represents the mining has a totally different pattern from those used by Satoshi Nakamoto's computer, so although not impossible, the possibility that he moved these bitcoins is extremely low .
Now let's go to an abstraction exercise where I will make my position on the subject clear. Let's suppose you created bitcoin, it is natural to imagine that this project has consumed a very long period of time and intensive research, where you put all your knowledge and revolutionary ideas and you see this project gradually gaining adoption and being useful in the real world, initially in 2014 where he went from nothing to something that was already drawing the attention of people around the world, in 2018 where he had the peak of users using and selling bitcoin until the current moment where people are looking at him again.
Would you really let your project die out of pure greed? Knowing how much effort it was to have built that? Knowing that all of your revolutionary ideas were coming true?.
Satoshi Nakamoto isn't stupid, he studied the evolution of the markets and followed the whole process of structuring and adopting his own project, yes, there is a possibility that Satoshi was able to mine this coin on a weaker computer and move the 50 bitcoins to see how the market would react to this process, but it would not make sense after everything that happened and has been happening with bitcoin to move the millions of bitcoins in order to profit from it. It is also possible to believe that Satoshi uses bitcoins nowadays and obtains them in other ways (either mining with a different machine or trading on exchanges), but knowing the risks he would bring to the project itself by moving the fortune he acquired in the early years of mining, the likelihood of this happening is minuscule.
In the end, stories like this show us the immaturity of the bitcoin market and how this news only appears to cause panic in the market. Note that news that are causing herd movements in the market is already beginning to emerge and this will intensify even more as bitcoin breaks through the resistance of the S10,000, shitcoins appearing with the promise of replacing bitcoin but without actually bring something useful to the contemporary world, exchanges being hacked, countless projects involving "multilevel marketing" promising you very high profits daily and news stating that bitcoin will die in a short time. Stay tuned and don't be fooled by news that will only bring you losses in the long run.
Thank you for reading :D