As I stated in the beginning of this blog, IF the expanding diagonal plays out it is expected to have ended around early November, November 4th to be precise, so XRP has still a week to take out the April high. Is this possible? Anything is possible in crypto I assume, but currently the price is still around $1 at the time of writing this post. XRP wasted so much time in correcting after the diagonal that started a of Y ; the good news is that I think that it probably just completed that correction as a double zigzag, but we need a miracle from here....
As I stated in my previous post : Keep in mind that whatever happens the end of "2" must overlap with the "1". I did think for a long time that the triangle would be the Y-wave, but instead the triangle broke down and was followed by an impulsive c-wave. We eventually retraced 50% of wave 1 but it took 25 days to do so. A huge waste of time, but it might mean that we need less correction in the future as we created a strong "base".
The corrective wave ended with a confirmed expanding ending diagonal. It is quiet clear what we need now, a powerful 3rd wave UP and nothing else... If we only see a partial retrace of that last down move that would be bearish, anything else then a strong up move is bearish actually. A minimal expected extension of 161,8% is what we need for wave 3, and would bring us to around $1,30. After that a 4th and 5th wave would be expected to conclude a of Y. After a corrective b we need another impulse to conclude Y. Optionally there could also be a Z-wave.
Let us take a look at the big picture :
So has the expanding diagonal really to end before November 4th? Is this a hard rule or not? There are really not many examples of diagonals that look like this, but my experience with diagonals is that there IS a relationship time/price, in this case wave 1 is the longest in time and the shortest in price, wave 3 was shorter in time and longer in price! So if we are indeed dealing with an expanding diagonal it would be logical to respect that same time/price relationship, but I will just count what I see, I will allow that it takes more time, however it will decrease the likelihood of a diagonal for me. Please keep in mind that the expanding diagonal is a potential and that it has to be confirmed by a higher high. Visually there is no difference between a triple zigzag and a diagonal, but for instance in a contracting diagonal wave 1 must be longer then 3 in time & price, if it does not respect that ratio I will no longer conciser it as a diagonal but count it as a triple zigzag. So it would certainly be better that we concluded the pattern by early November, but we wasted so much time in October, the likelihood of a diagonal is now lower because of this.
Let us assume the expanding diagonal forms correctly and that we print a higher high for wave 5 before (or after) November 4th, what will follow after that? I will focus on that in another update, if we see some serious progress in price in the next couple of days.
Lately I have seen a lot of counts for XRP that try to count the rise as an impulse wave, it makes absolutely no sense for me. If the diagonal does not play out the best alternate is that we have a double zigzag from the low :
If we do not see the required strength in the near future this count will become the main count, unfortunately it is difficult to know what would be next in this scenario. A triple zigzag is possible, but there are also some bearish potentials with this count.
