G'day

For now the recent price actions fits with the idea of an extracting diagonal.  In this update I will try to answer if this diagonal can give us the final decline.

Let me take a closer look at the potential extracting diagonal :

Wave 4 has overlapped 1 as expected but needs to take more time (then the 2nd wave) to give it the expanding look, that means that it must complete after tomorrow 16:00 (Central European Time format). When 4 completes we should see a thrust downward and that decline should be longer in price a shorter in time then the wave 3, and that wave took ~23 hours. So what I am looking for is a violent thrust to complete the diagonal, how ugly it gets remains to be seen but it will most likely end below the diagonal trendline. All of this presumed that we are dealing with a diagonal, it is not a certainty at this point. But IF it is we can apply the rules and that can help us to predict the price action, although we don't know where wave 4 & 5 will end though.

So now the question, is it possible that this diagonal gives us an important low? In my previous update I assumed that the X completed on November 15, if you move the "X" to the left and let it on November 10 then it is possible that this diagonal is the c wave of the zigzag. 

Visualization :

I have added some green labels to the chart that show you the new idea - which idea is correct? Difficult to determine if the decline from the November 15 high was a three wave or a five wave structure, and the same can be said of the rise from the bottom. I hope you can follow my idea here, just wanted to show you that the diagonal shake-out may provide an important bottom, and it could happen on Day # 589.

That's all for now, hope this update was helpful. Tomorrow could be very interesting day!

Take care,

Yrs,