Good morning,

If you have followed me for awhile you know that XRP needed a new high before April 19th according to the primary count - it obviously did not happen - this means that the proposed count of the diagonal is no longer possible. That is why I like diagonal counts, you have clear invalidation points, and on this occasion we miserably failed in time. From the January low we counted a zigzag, and that was it.  I did mention the risk in my previous update, unfortunately it played out - It's quite remarkable that the selling started to pick up steam on April 19, the day diagonal count was invalided.

A new plan is needed for the big picture...

Well I see 2 options here, wave 4 of the diagonal is still in progress and we will print a new low (potentially truncation) in the coming weeks, this would reset the counter and give us another 109 days to finish wave 5.

But there is an alternate count, that I already mentioned a few times, and that count is now maybe becoming more likely. In this count we are also dealing with a diagonal, but the diagonal completed in April of 2021 - and was followed by a correction, and this correction may have completed early January 2023 with a truncated low. But since that low there is only an upward zigzag as of now, so the only potential upward count from that low is a diagonal, once again :

The yellow labels are the original count as shown before, the "4" low would move to the right  - and the orange labels are the new count. In this new count we would now be in an upward diagonal, currently a 2nd wave correction - so this count is not extremely bullish in the short term, we would finish the diagonal first (choppy affair) and when complete, it would be followed by a correction, it's after that correction we would see some real upward progress. But in this count however the low would be in, that's the positive news. 

That's all for now, in my next post I will focus on the recent price action.

Take care,