Good morning

It's been awhile since my last post, I hope your summer is going well -in that post I concluded we could be in an upward diagonal, and "While this is an upward count, it's also a count that is not extreme bullish short term - yeah, prices will move higher but in a choppy way". 

The count of the diagonal still stands as of today, there was a lot of excitement around July 13th when Judge Torres issued her ruling and declared XRP is not a security. I immediately stated on Twitter that no matter how high we went it would likely come back to overlap the March highs. And that is exactly what happened this week. The overlap was expected & needed in the diagonal count, and it played out.  I have to warn though that the diagonal is only a potential at this point and that the structure should form in every detail, but since we are obviously dealing with upward zigzags it is the only bullish count that is possible at this point, there is no sign of impulsive price action. Those that showed you an impulsive count have been proved wrong, again.

Okay, let me show you an updated chart  :

In my previous post (a) of iii had just concluded... we then saw a choppy triangle for (b), this wasted quite some time... The ruling news gave us a thrust out of the triangle for (c). Because (iii) exceeded the length of wave (i) it means the diagonal has to be of the expanding type.  I kinda expected that the length of (iii) would exceed the length of (i) but this is not the case here.  Is this a problem? Probably not, as long as we have a logical time:price ratio in the wave action. In this case price of wave i < wave iii < wave v => wave v should be the largest wave in price of the sequence. And in time wave i > wave iii > wave v => wave v should be the shortest wave in time, this should be monitored & respected. If this is not the case this would be a warning sign that something else could be going on, something more bearish as a diagonal is the only bullish potential that I see right now.

So a potential bottom is in place for wave iv, as you can see the line from (ii) to (iv) does not cut off any candles, now we have to monitor in the next couple of days  and weeks if we get some bullish price action from this point. If this bottom confirms we should expect wave v to conclude before October 19th and with a price exceeding 94 cents. And if all goes well that would complete the upward diagonal. At that point you would have to expect another correction finishing the accumulation phase -  this would be a final correction before starting a real bullish impulsive upward move. This is also the phase were you should move your focus to selling your holdings.

Anyways, let me end this post with a look at the big picture :

I hope this helps, and I will monitor the price action and write an update if needed or wanted.

Thanks for checking.

Yours,