It has been awhile since my last post. Sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused, it's a combination of several things really. I never really felt much interest in my work, but I have also been struggling with the count a bit, and last but not least Niels has been pretty sick the last couple of weeks, he is finally doing a bit better now though.
Anyways, at the end of January I decided it was time for an attempt to count upward since we counted a complete triple zigzag formation. At first the market almost did exactly as I proposed in my last update, it produced five waves up to around the 75 cents level. But after these five waves it did a small pullback and then kept going up in FOMO style without retracing, it was impossible to label all of the upward price action as an impulse because of degree issues... Well I did not expect an impulse anyways, I did expect a zigzag. I count the upward move as a zigzag forming the W of the lowest degree (please check my previous post if this makes no sense).
From that high we had a large pullback bottoming on February 23rd, it was followed by a rise but with pretty choppy price action. It became clear several weeks later that we may deal with a triangle in the X-position. That triangle could now near completion, if so it would be a very compressed triangle though :
Please keep in mind that it is possible this triangle may need more time to complete, a triangle is a pretty complex formation and it is never good to rush a triangle. So for instance it is possible that leg (c) of the triangle needs more time and price correction. It is pretty common to see a 78,1% correction inside a triangle. That said, the triangle may play out as shown above, it appears that each triangle leg is a zigzag so far, it is certainly possible that leg (d) or (e) will be a more complex affair. If the triangle plays out as above it would be an unlimited triangle because the thrust would happen very near to the apex, these kind of triangles are most of the time very bullish.
Big picture..... even after an absence of almost 2 months the count has not changed :
So there is no change to the big picture, a zigzag was expected, we are still in the lowest degree (yellow). Future labels are just an indication of what waves come next, and no price indication. The alternate remains that the whole structure is a diagonal and currently in wave v, in case of this scenario we know that since wave v has to stay shorter then iii the diagonal should have completed before May 11th. This is mainly the alternate because normally in a diagonal you expect simple zigzags and no combinations like we've seen from the start of the rise.
That's all for now!