Good morning

It has been 3 months since my last update. The reason is pretty simple, I did not have enough confidence to share anything. Sometimes it is better to stay quite. I initially counted a diagonal from the truncated low in January of 2023, but the count stopped working because the time:price ratio was not correct. I then switched to an impulsive count, but that count also failed. I was then a bit lost at that point. I counted an upward diagonal from the February lows, but I could not really fit it into a count. However I always considered a bigger diagonal, but that diagonal count needed an overlap of the January 2023 highs, and well it finally happened last night - so a potential diagonal is back on track! And if you followed me on X then I warned for the potential scenario that we needed the overlap in December but also on yesterday :

I certainly did not expect that the overlap would occur the same day!! But yeah, I was still awake when the flash crash happened so I did add some XRP to the bag (and some other coins). Hope it will be a good decision.

Anyways, back to the count... I like what we have now, the only problem is that this diagonal is taking an incredible amount of time, it already took more time then the initial upward diagonal and is far from finished if correct, but that is no rule breaker as far as I know.

So everything makes sense in this count, especially the confusing price action after wave III completed, with a flat for X, and the c-wave was indeed a diagonal, but it was an ending diagonal, confirmed as of yesterday! We have decent bounce from the lows as of now, but it can still go bit lower if it wants but needless to say it cannot travel below the January lows! Let us monitor to see what we get in the next couple of days and weeks, personally I would like it that we travel north from here and not revisit the lows again. 

The bigger picture looks as follows :

Take notice that we also backtested the 0:2 trendline while overlapping wave I of the diagonal. In an expanding diagonal the wave V must take more time and more price then wave III, this means it cannot end before August 9 or so.  And the minimum price is 95 cents or so, however if it wants to overthrow the trendline, and that is common in diagonals, it could print higher then the April 2021 highs. That would be good, because after the diagonal there will be a correction.

That is all for now, hope you like the update. I will keep you posted, glad to be back and hope we stay on the right track now!

Sincerely Yours,