Hello traders

A bit of an urgent post as my upward count is in trouble, still alive at the moment, but in trouble... Well I could only count three waves up from the December low, so I was really never sure that the upward count would work, but my feeling said I had to give it a try.

So after the recent three waves up (abc) we started a big retrace, bigger then anticipated, and if we take a look at the big picture we are at a very interesting location right now :

If you connect the December lows of 2020 & 2021 we actually tested that trendline today, for now it is holding. A break of the trendline probably seals the deal for my upward count attempt, and that would probably mean that the recent bounce from the lows is an x and that we are going lower for the blue X. The blue X was counted as a running correction, but additional downside remains certainly possible, but will not impact the count much.

A look at the recent price action :

The move down is in progress, for now it can be counted as a zigzag down. Just not sure the c leg is a complete impulse already, there could be one downleg missing there, but it is also possible the fourth wave was very short in time. On this timeframe you can also see that we tested the trendline connecting the December lows... That trendline is key, if we see further weakness I doubt the recent December low is gonna hold. But I'm still counting upward for now (until failure) and in that case I count the decline as an X wave, next up would be an Y wave (of yellow degree).

Crypto markets have been in extreme fear for awhile ; so I hope we see a decent bounce. If prices move lower that does not change that much to my view in regards to the big picture. though

Anyways, this was my first post of the year, so I wish you happy new year. I doubt 2022 is gonna be a good year for the markets, I do hope that we'll get an opportunity to sell our bags in the first part of the year.

Take care !