Good evening
A few investors have contacted me to say they have €X.000 euros on the sidelines and they plan to invest when XRP drops below 30 cents again. As you know what most people expect does not happen, a capitulation comes most of the time unexpected without time to prepare. At those times people sell in panic and smart money will buy cheap - I already mentioned a few times there is a bullish alternate, in that scenario the June lows will hold.
Today I will present you that bullish alternate as a little Sinterklaas gift. To people with money on the sidelines willing to invest in crypto it may be wiser to invest a small amount of it on red market days. Certainly a better plan then to FOMO when market would go up.
I added green labels to my chart to show you the bullish alternate count :
The idea of the bullish alternate is that an upward diagonal started at the June lows, a triple zigzag for wave 1, a zigzag for wave 2 - this count avoids the truncation in October as it would be the b wave high of the zigzag. Since the length of wave 1 we would most likely be a in contracting diagonal with wave 1 the longest in price and time. Because the 2nd wave is very long the 3rd wave has not much room to go over the high, at least not in a contracting diagonal because w3 has to stay shorter then w1.
As I said yesterday, the recent price action is pretty complicated. I am speculating above that we could be in a b wave triangle, such a triangle can fit in both a bullish or bearish count. But in the bearish scenario it would also point to some higher prices before a crash, while in the bullish alternate a new high would be expected after the triangle. I like the idea of the diagonal at the start of a bullish phase, you have to see it as a choppy accumulation phase, after completion of the diagonal a correction would be expected - and it is after that correction that the real bullish phase would start.
Time will tell which count is correct, but the fact is that this bullish alternate does not fit in my bigger picture count, as it wasted too much time. But that are worries for later.
Have a nice Sinterklaas eve.
