G'day

Let's pick up where I left yesterday, a of Y was in progress :

The a wave was a straight line down, it did break the purple trendline while doing so...  It appears a bounce is now in progress, probably b of Y, this could form a triangle or another 3 wave structure. Could be another boring weekend if a triangle forms here.... But that is speculation, I do expect lower prices when this b completes (I think it is still in progress)

The question is now, did we really have a five wave structure preceding this move down? Well maybe not. I counted the start of that move as a leading diagonal, but the diagonal did not overthrow and it produced a very small retrace... So maybe this was a mistake and maybe there was a quick a & b at the bottom and the impulse that followed was just the c-leg. So not an impulse up, just a zigzag up :

So after the initial rise (it remains unsure if that was a three or five wave structure) there was a collection of 3 wave moves moving sideways with lower lows. Difficult to say what is going on here, the most bullish idea is that this is a very complex 2nd wave, in that case it is not allowed to make a new low. Another idea is that we are in b wave of a flat that will retrace more then 90%. Or just a b  or x wave of a bigger correction.

But I still think that the chances are higher that we take out the May 13th high before crashing to new lows. 

Let me end with a reminder of the big picture :

A potential target of the ongoing correction could be the blue trendline at a level around 36 cents, we may find some buyers there. If that happens and we see a bounce to a higher high it could just be another X of green degree, or the bottom is already in. That is impossible to say...

I will follow the markets closely on the weekend, but it could be a boring affair with a bigger move coming after the weekend. 

Enjoy it and chat soon.