I’ve been staring at this Bitcoin chart all week, and my read hasn’t changed: the $75K support zone is where this move gets decided. BTC is trading around $82,100 after getting smacked right under the $83K supply block.
Let me walk you through what I’m seeing and what I’m doing about it.
The Trendline Break That Matters
The rising trendline that carried BTC from the low $60Ks is gone. Price tried to climb back to it, hit the underside near $83K-$83.5K and stalled.
I’ve traded enough of these to know the pattern. A broken trendline retest that fails is where the smart money fades the bounce. I’m not buying here, because I don’t like paying up for a lower high.
The EMA Ladder Below Price
Price is stepping down a ladder, and each rung is an EMA I’m watching:
- $80.3K, the 50-day EMA. First stop. A daily close below it tells me momentum has flipped.
- $78.3K, the 50-week EMA. Where I expect dip buyers to test their conviction.
- $75.7K, the 200-day EMA. My main level. It sits right on top of $75K, a round number where stops pile up.
- $69.4K, the 200-week EMA. If this breaks, we’re having a different conversation.
How I’d Play It
Short setup: I’d look for a rejection between $82.8K and $83.3K, stop above $83.8K, targeting $80.3K first. The stop is tight, so the reward is multiples of the risk. If it works, I trail the rest toward $75.7K.
Long setup: I’d rather buy after a sweep of $75K and a close back above it than guess the bottom. Catching the wick is luck. Waiting for the reclaim is a process.
My invalidation on the bear idea is simple. A daily close above $83.6K means I’m wrong, and I’m out.
What Could Wreck This View
- A hot macro surprise that moves rate-cut odds
- Strong ETF inflows pushing BTC straight through $83.6K
- A short squeeze if funding flips negative while price grinds up
I’m also checking funding and open interest before I size anything. If longs are crowded while price weakens, the flush tends to be faster than people expect.
Where I Stand
Bias is bearish below $83.6K. The level I’m watching is $80.3K, and a close under it puts $78.3K and $75.7K in play. I’ll take the trade when the setup shows up, not before.
Research references: price structure and EMA values (50D $80,330, 50W $78,345, 200D $75,692, 200W $69,351) come from the BTC/USD chart snapshot taken October 16, 2026. Cross-check funding rates and open interest on Coinglass, on-chain flows on Glassnode or CryptoQuant, and ETF flows on Farside before you trade.
Want the full breakdown with exact entries, bullish scenario and FAQs? Read the complete analysis on my original blog, TechnoLoger Insights.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational and research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).
