Happy New Year everyone! It was an amazing stock market for 2019 and I have macro views on what I will be watching for 2020 that I would like to share with you all.  Note I am far from a financial expert so take my investment posts as entertainment only ;) The list to follow is what I will be looking at through the year 2020 and how it will effect the way I invest.

US and China Trade War

Without a doubt this has been a big topic for 2019 even though it has been around since president Trump was elected president. It was surprising how much supposedly a part one trade deal and potential future agreements has rallied the market since.

I would think this topic will effect 2020 financial markets similar to 2019. If there is any signs that president Trump may have a challenge getting re-elected in my opinion would make for a bad market. Reason being that although a trade deal has yet to be made there has been progress of having one completed. If president Trump could not continue a second term there is uncertain as to how the continuation of this trade deal negotiations. Uncertainty in how other trades negotiations between the US and other countries will also be a concern. So as long as things progress through 2020 similar to 2019 where US and China continue talks and new partial or whole trade deal is agreed on I am bullish on the market.

Quantitative Easing 4?

The FED has been vocal that the recent reserve's action on repo market is not quantitative easing. I believe they are saying this is because if the market was to fall out they will by then execute an official QE to support the market. Whether this will actually help the market is unknown, but I think having QE is a good thing for stock prices. From past history when QE was implemented the stock prices went up. Speculation that 2019 year end rally was do in part of FED's expanded balance sheets. I for one think when markets do not correlate to expansion in balance the FED will take extraordinary measures and announce QE 4. Which is an exponential expansion in the balance sheet rather than gradual increase!

(Courtesy from post on zerohedge.com - link here)

If for some strange reason the FED will not act to support the market then exiting the markets is a must. There has no signs that this is happening.

Treasuries and Commodities

I am personally not touching any of these. In regards to Treasuries rates will bound to rise from current levels. There is more upside than down side. With the negative rate possibility I highly doubt will happen in the US. There is too much debt for lenders to forgive. On the part of diesel fuel or oil fuel it seems like the initial crack of the industry failing is coming sooner rather than later. With consumer vehicles leaning more toward alternative fuels such as electricity it is easy to see there is no future in oil. If electric cars is the future like where many auto manufacturers are leaning towards I would think other industries like heavy machinery will follow suit.

Commodities such as gold and silver may seem to be a safe haven if all else fails but when did it really fail? 2008 seemed like the perfect storm but here we are 11 years later. If I had to be honest with myself then would I want to feel like the world is ending or stop worrying and play the money game by finding ways to earn more of it and investing it in the best possible ways to earn the most interest.

Cryptocurrency

What post on a blockchain social media be if I did not mention crypto. I for one am going to do my best to organically make the most crypto possible without using fiat. The thinking is people in 2009 mostly spent very little to no fiat to make it big in crypto. If that works for them than why not me? Of course crypto space has evolved since and there are a lot more challenges for many of us who recently started investing in crypto will ever become rich from this. I am not too worried about current declines in crypto prices as I am in for the long haul. I prefer to be investing my time to earn crypto in hopes that the future value will be greater than the present. As they say time is money.

Best of luck to everyone in their 2020 investments. Wish you all a prosperous, healthy, and happy 2020!