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Bitcoin Market Corrections, Correlation & The Alt Market

By Thomas Wolf | Thomas Wolf's Den | 19 Apr 2021

Don’t worry; this drop is only a market correction; it is very normal, and recovery has already begun.

“Both bull and bear can be your friends.” Mohit Bansal

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped dramatically overnight to $53,395 USD, down from a new all-time high of $64,585 USD on April 14th.  The King coin is already pushing back up to $56,350 USD with heavy resistance.  What goes up must go down, at least some; such is the nature of a volatile market.  Ethereum (ETH) doing well while Bitcoin is down is great for mining payouts via Nicehash, a 3070 was paying over what a 3090 typically pays this morning.

As usual, the entire altcoin market tanked with Bitcoin putting many of us, including myself, in a temporarily uncomfortable place.  However, you have to factor in that every time the market drops, we accumulate new investors and boost overall volume.  The alt market took an equally hard blow during this drop, although it is holding in correlation with Bitcoin’s current recovery.

Why I was losing money for a while is quite simple; I wasn’t holding with enough loyalty and flipping was counter-productive with a busy schedule; why didn't I just HODL?

Now, before I go into too much detail on The Price of Loyalty in Crypto, I must cite a Coinmarkcap article, “Does Bitcoin Really Lift the Altcoin Market?” that states it was discovered that 85% of all ICO’s (Initial Coin Offering, aka airdrops) post-2017 have been scams.  That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in new projects, does it!  And people wonder why I have issues with lack of transparency in projects...

For this reason, being able to trust the asset you are investing in is crucial for many investors.  In the crypto world, the entire market has been following Bitcoin for some time now as it is the most well-established and “trusted” cryptocurrency and still represents over half of the entire crypto market’s volume.  However, there are exceptions and there have been times when the alt market did not correlate nearly as close, if at all.  I see a bridge between trusting an asset and remaining loyal to it as pivotal to success on any asset.

Entering into a market where there are countless scams, extreme volatility, FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), and a constant check of balances via PNL (Profit and Loss) can be extremely daunting.  Trust is crucial; they even named a wallet after it, which was a clever play on words and branding.  Trust Wallet is excellent, by the way, but it lacks support for several currencies I use that are lesser-known.

Going back to the main point, Bitcoin has more trust than any other currency.  Every day people I know are now investing sizable amounts in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin.  However, they need to do more research on the exchanges they use in order to avoid excessive fees and bait-like apps.  The world is full of false promises, and we have to navigate a massive world of potential lies within the cryptosphere.  I picture what it is like for the people I know to look at these overnight losses and wonder if they gave in to the FUD or if they held and know to wait for continued recoveries that WILL come.

It is getting easier and easier for individuals such as myself to spot scammers, excessive fees, projects that lack transparency or over-promise that of a realistic ROI (return on investment), and a host of other things that could potentially hurt people financially.  It is the “middle projects” that are up-and-coming that are the most difficult to evaluate, in my opinion, because they still have to undergo many changes to come to fruition.  Many don’t know of their true legitimacy or potential right up until the airdrop flops to $0.00 in value or long after when the project either succeeds or bails from reality, leaving holders with worthless assets out of the blue.

Outside general correlations, pair the fact that the entire market has active pair trades (including arbitrage bot trades) with Bitcoin, and it makes absolute sense that Bitcoin would heavily correlate with almost all other cryptocurrencies.  Honestly, it’s odd when they don’t - every time Ripple (XRP) or Eden OS (EOS) go up when Bitcoin is diving, I roll my eyes.

I always wish I had the answers to all the numbers, but this isn’t Limitless; we use our best determinations on targets and techniques to invest, we do not perform magic tricks - save those false acts of magic for the whales that have the ability to influence the market, which is another concern as Bitcoin has been being bought up primarily by corporations for a while now.

I think it is cryptocurrencies that have demonstrated independence through less correlation that are showing potential for longevity as they seem to rely less on Bitcoin to buff their prices or maintain their own market patterns.  For now, the market follows Bitcoin in a very tight fashion.  As alternate currencies further establish independence and utility, which will ultimately inform investors that better alternatives than Bitcoin exist, I believe we will see more and more of this independent behavior from top currencies.

As for another market crash, get used to it.  That’s the name of the game, and if you cannot handle it, you are in the wrong market.  As someone wise recently said to me, “You may have invested too much,” which was simply another way of saying live within your means and never invest anything you cannot afford to lose.

While losing your asset's fiat value is entirely possible, Bitcoin is being pumped hard by many major corporations, so the odds of that happening now are pretty damn slim.  I highly doubt Bitcoin will ever go low again, at least, until a new king coin has been crowned years from now, and even then, I bet it will retain a lot of value out of legacy alone.

My only conclusion can be to carefully pick your loyalties and set a limit for yourself on losses (stop-loss order or similar) well ahead of time if you are imminently concerned about volatility like we see routinely in crypto.  I wish all affected a speedy financial recovery, and for those who get to buy low for the first time, welcome to the market!

As always, comments, suggestions, and friendly debates are highly encouraged.

Stay smart & Stay safe.

-Thomas Wolf

Pronouns: He/Him/His

I am not a certified financial, tax, or legal advisor, analyst, or planner.  The above information should not be considered advice but as an opinion intended to share information and ideas for entertainment and independent research purposes.  Cryptowriter and its writers are not responsible for any losses or damages incurred as a result of misinterpreting personal opinions for professional advice.

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