According to leading Brexiters like Nigel Farage, Brexit has failed, who argue that the promises made for Brexit were impossible to fulfill and that the project has been betrayed. This sentiment has become increasingly common among Brexit supporters, while those who opposed Brexit, particularly in the Labour Party, are reluctant to acknowledge its failure openly. Keir Starmer's "Making Brexit Work" policy aims to improve the Brexit trade deal without fundamentally changing its nature. However, there are differing views on what constitutes Brexit failure, with Farage and others focusing on the high level of net migration and the lack of significant regulatory divergence from the EU.
Labour's current policy is to improve the Brexit trade deal while ruling out rejoining the single market or the EU. This position is unlikely to change before the next election, as it is considered a realistic option for the party. Labor is also wary of allowing the Tories to weaponize Brexit against them and is cautious about being seen as seeking to reverse Brexit undemocratically.
Recent developments have reinforced Brexiters' belief in the failure of their project. The expected release of figures showing a record-high net migration has fueled a sense of betrayal among Brexit supporters who expected immigration levels to decrease. Additionally, the scaling back of the Retained EU Law (REUL) Bill has further exacerbated tensions. The listing of laws to be considered for cutting has drawn criticism from Brexiters, who see it as a betrayal of the promise to be free from EU law. However, the practicality of significant regulatory divergence and the negative consequences for businesses have become apparent.
Tory Brexiters' reactions to the REUL Bill's watering-down are likely more robust than their response to the Windsor Framework. This could be attributed to their concerns about regulatory divergence, greatly benefiting Brexit supporters. The turmoil within the Tory Party, as evidenced by recent conferences and gatherings of various factions, indicates a struggle for the ideological soul of the party and a potential leadership contest in the event of Rishi Sunak's declining authority.
Brexit continues to cause damage and decline. The looming end-of-year deadline for electric vehicles to be traded tariff-free between the EU and the UK, requiring batteries to be at least 60% sourced in the EU or the UK, has raised concerns about factory closures in the UK. Urgent action is needed to address this issue, but it highlights the complexities and challenges of Brexit.
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