For the last few days, I have been reading as via The Conversation about the recent developments in Russia regarding the case of the officially private military company and unofficially a more or less criminal group called Wagner and their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin trying to take power in Russia.
The Wagner Group, a private army of mercenaries, has been fighting alongside the Russian military in Ukraine. Tensions had been escalating between the group and the Russian military leadership, with Prigozhin openly criticizing their conduct in the war. The crisis escalated when Prigozhin claimed that the Russian army had attacked his camp and vowed to eliminate the top military brass. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a state of martial law in several regions and vowed to deal with the mutiny. For example, Wagner managed to take control of the regional military command and military facilities in Voronezh, moving towards Moscow. The rapid developments led to heightened security measures in various regions, including Moscow.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin has communicated about punishing "those who had betrayed Russia" in response to the rebellion. However, an agreement was reached to de-escalate the situation following talks between Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus, and Prigozhin. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the situation as chaos and accused Putin of hiding and spreading evil.
At the moment, what is known is that the arrest warrant for Prigozhin will be dropped, and the criminal case against him and his troops will be closed. Wagner mercenaries who wish to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense can still do so. But the conflict between Wagner, Prigozhin, and the Russian state, Putin, remains.
In the aftermath, Putin faces a significant challenge to his leadership and regime. Dictators who survive coup attempts often resort to purges to eliminate perceived enemies and consolidate power. Putin will likely escalate violence in Ukraine and purge disloyal individuals while balancing punishing adversaries and rewarding allies. The future remains uncertain and potentially dangerous, given the involvement of both Putin and Prigozhin, who are regarded as war criminals.
Russia has a history of civil wars. While 30 years ago, democracy and capitalism led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, today, state-military capitalism/cronyism could lead to the collapse of Russia.
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