Disclaimer: As everything else in this blog, these are my personal opinions and they don't necessarily reflect the position of AdEx Network.
This title has 2017 vibes but bear with me. Even though it's 2021, the crypto world is a lot more mature and it's mind-boggling how this question is still a thing, I still feel we need to talk about this.
In fact, "When moon?" is one of the most common questions we get in the AdEx Network community, in one variation or another (people often have a target price in mind and ask us when we'll reach it). The question most often comes from novice crypto investors.
Every time someone asks "When ADX $5" for example, I automatically answer "Wednesday". Not because I have any insider information about it but because whatever I say, it would have zero predictive value. I might as well say "Trash pandas" instead and my answer would have the same level of precision: none.
All this leads to the point of today's rant: crypto BUIDLers can't influence and/or predict the price of their altcoins. Outrageous, I know.
Let's think for a minute. If I could somehow control the price of ADX, what's to stop me from making it worth, say, $10,000 a coin, then cash out my tokens, purchase a private island and relocate there to get away from everything that annoys me? Nothing, that's what. I'd 100% do this.
To recap: We 👏 can't 👏 influence 👏 the 👏 price 👏 of 👏 our 👏 token.
Which doesn't mean we don't care about it. We do - deeply, passionately and with the everlasting hope of becoming tropical island owners. This is why every time there's a price movement, we look into the possible reasons for this. We do this for other cryptocurrencies too, not just for ADX. With time, we've managed to identify some factors that may (but don't necessarily) move a price up or down. Here they are.
- News about the company/project/service: Any piece of positive news like a new partnership, tech upgrade, major exchange listing, important milestone etc. solidify investors' trust and can rise the price.
- User adoption: The more users you have, the better you're doing, which translates into a higher value and sustainability of your coin, leading to a better price. You lose a large number of users? Well, it's possible the your token price follows that trend down the drain.
- Rumours: The last rumour someone spread about AdEx in a local community lead to that community pumping ADX for a short while. But wouldn't they verify the rumour before investing their hard-earned money, you would ask? Apparently not. Even in 2021 a lot of crypto investors operate on the basis of "buy first, ask questions later".
- General market conditions: Market conditions such as a bull run, a bear market or an altcoin season can push the price of a coin up or down respectively.
- Market analysis: A lot of crypto traders base their decisions on technical analysis, and often spot what they think is a trend or a signal for a price going up or down. I myself would never trade based on technical analysis alone because I think such trends are often self-fulfilling prophecies. Which doesn't mean technical analysis has no merit. I'm simply a conservative/cautious investor and I like to do my due diligence and have the full picture before I make a trading decision.
- Impactful social media posts: We’ve all seen what a single tweet from Elon Musk can do. Our team is not at the Technoking’s level yet but we have our moments and perhaps one day we'll publish the tweet that gets us those private islands!
Again: while these factors have the potential to make a coin shoot up or plummet, the presence of one or more of them does not automatically mean that the price will move.
The truth is, the only believable answer to "When moon", "When lambo", "When [coin] $[dollar amount] and the like is, "We don't know". Unless we're speaking of a stablecoin. These are more or less predictable.