Bulls in Charge While Uncertainty Persists

By ulriklykke | Bitcoin Global Macro | 9 Aug 2023

Sentiment is running high but I doubt we are out of the woods

The S&P500 has continued its upward trajectory, surging by 3.11% in July, while the cumulative gains over the past 3 months stand at 10.06%.

Obviously, the Fed’s indication that it might pivot has contributed to the positive sentiment among investors. However, it's also worth noting the resilience of the US economy, which has played a significant role in this outlook. The unemployment rate currently hovers between 3.5% and 3.6%, near 50-year lows. Remarkable.

To top it up, the latest earning reports for Q2 2023 came in slightly higher than expected for most companies, further improving the market’s confidence.

But despite this renewed optimism, the market remains dire and the higher sentiment should be a cause for concern for any investor. 

BTC Maintains Resilience Despite Falling Volumes

Bitcoin's price remained relatively stable in Q2, even as altcoins like BNB experienced double-digit drawdowns.

The latest report by Coingecko reveals that BTC outperformed the overall crypto market cap by 6.9%, though it lagged behind the Nasdaq and S&P 500, which gained 14% and 8% respectively. This is interesting as BTC usually behaves like a risk asset and typically outperforms the Nasdaq both to the upside and downside.

Will BTC hold up if the equities market tumbles? Time will tell.

However, in spite of BTC's resilience, the declining volumes and activity in the crypto space are evident. Monthly volumes are the lowest they've been since November 2020.


Source: Kaiko 

Industry Shakers 

  • PayPal launches dollar-backed stablecoin 

    On Monday, PayPal unveiled a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar, aiming to enhance its array of cryptocurrency offerings. This marks an unprecedented step by a prominent U.S. financial entity. The newly introduced asset, named PayPal USD (PYUSD), targets the budding possibilities of revolutionizing transactions in Web3 and other digital-first landscapes.

  • US Court Dismisses Class Action Against Tether & Bitfinex

    Last week, Chief Judge Laura Taylor Swain of the Southern District of New York delivered a concise 6-page verdict, dismissing the class action by Matthew Anderson and Shawn Dolifka against Tether and Bitfinex. The Court determined that the plaintiffs' claim did not present any “plausible allegations of injury”, noting the absence of evidence indicating any actual depreciation in the value of "USDT.

  • Hong Kong debuts retail crypto trading with HashKey and OSL

    Cryptocurrency trading is finally expanding to individual investors in Hong Kong as regulatory approvals are being granted to local exchanges. HashKey, a digital asset firm, has secured all required licensing to transition from professional to retail users, a move announced on August 3. Along with HashKey, another Hong Kong-based crypto firm, OSL, has also upgraded its existing license from the SFC, allowing the exchange to legally offer Bitcoin and Ether trading to retail investors. 

  • Revolut enables crypto withdrawals to external wallets

    Revolut sent out an email to its European retail users yesterday with the intention to finally abolish its walled garden and allow for deposits and withdrawals of BTC and a number of other crypto assets. This is a long-awaited feature for many of Revoluts users and is something the company has been delaying again and again. The news comes out at the same Revolut is announcing its discontinuance of crypto services in the US. Interesting development.  

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Author of the Bitcoin Global Macro, a newsletter focusing on bitcoin, macro insights & investment ideas in the digital assets space.

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