Gulland Rock (advised each/way yesterday) ran a big race at 40/1, missing out on the placings by just a neck. He lacked the initial speed of some of these but picked up very quickly in the final furlong. The favourite Onebaba ran solidly to come home in front.
Today's Race
I've picked out another AW race today. I find these races to be more predictable than the jumping fare recently and that (prediction) is the basic idea. I'll usually look at a big jumps race on a Saturday. A class 5 (0-75) handicap over 10 furlongs at Newcastle (tapeta) today. Eleven runners evenly priced from 7/2 to 33/1.
The Contenders
Lord Halifax is very popular having run second over 12f the last twice. Excuses last time but not for me at this price. Union Spirit makes his debut on a Tapeta surface and is opposable.
Starfighter has been getting closer with each outing. He has ability but with 1 win from 24 runs suggest he's tricky to get right and ultimately he makes litle appeal at 13/2.
Monsaraz appears the best backed horse in the race. Showed some ability when with James Given and won on first start for David Loughnane. Well handicapped but this looks a tougher contest.
Bobba Tee is very interesting. Recorded a big speed figure for me when running Ad Libitum very close over 12f at Newcastle last time. That was his best run yet and he still appeals despite a 5lb rise. He hit the front a little early there and hence the drop in trip. He's being offered at better than 6/1 and is of marked interest at this price.
All the outsiders have something going for them too. Two I'll mention are I Can't Remember and My Boy Lewis. The Keith Dalgleish horse has run very well here in the past but it's been a mixed bag of very poor and very good runs. There's been some market support for him and a 5lbs claiming apprentice in good form is booked. My Boy Lewis is a decent sort (and stablemate of the horse that beat Bobba Tee recently). Stepping up from a mile to 10 furlongs seems a big ask but he should run well. I'm not concerned by the Southwell flop. Champagne Rules also looks a big price at 33/1.
The Selection
He's drifting a little in the betting just now but Bobba Tee can be chanced at around 13/2 to prove his high speed figure last time was no fluke. Those speed figures are my own but Topspeed has him joint top with Starfighter. I Can't Remember makes a good each-way option.
Today's Tip
(To Win) BOBBA TEE (7/1 Betfair, 11/2 General)
Recent Results
4 Feb: 3.00 Southwell (AW) Gulland Rock (e/w) 4th/11 - @ 40/1
3 Feb: 7.30 Kempton (AW) Zhui Feng 1st/9 WON @ 4/1
2 Feb: 2.55 Newcastle (AW) The Steward 1st/12 WON @ 9/1
Account (Level Stakes Profit)
Feb 2021 LSP: +14.5
All 2021 LSP: +14.5
