In the summer, more fire incidents are expected. There’s also a fixed number of incidents every year that doesn’t vary much. So, when planning for resources, you can estimate that during this week of the season, we’ll have this many incidents and we’ll need this much manpower and equipment. But when you focus on it, it seems like it’s increased. This is a common cognitive bias. In the U.S., for example, when planes were recently crashing or experiencing technical issues one after another, people thought the number had increased and the time between them had shortened. But it hadn’t—it was in line with the usual yearly statistics. Since Trump’s team was insisting on firing government employees, including some involved in flight safety, the focus on such incidents increased, making it seem like something had changed.

When you step into the field of management, religious niceties start to fade. Phrases like “May God heal all the sick” or “May God not bring this disaster upon anyone” start to lose their meaning. When you become the head of the emergency department, you realize that’s not how it works. There are always some fractures, some internal bleedings, some poisonings—and you have to be prepared for them ahead of time. It’s like rainfall—you can roughly estimate how many millimeters of rain you’ll get.