On the BTC the price is breaking down the bullish channel and the 50 MM Daily with bearish divergence on the RSI and the MACD, to see the close!
The Silvergate bank is in a vertical fall (The picture at the bottom), and not only that:
- FED rates are likely to rise to +0.5% but at least +0.25%
- Inflation which doesn't seem to calm down with more job demand and less unemployment, despite the rise in interest rates since 2022.
- The SEC which puts pressure to regulate the exchanges.
We are waiting for the sellers to come back in force, I think we have to go below 21.5K to reverse the Daily uptrend since the start of 2023.
*** Bullish scenario:
We have a confluence of 3 indicators on the key support level at $22,300 towards a possible rebound!
- The 79% fibo in the OTE zone.
- The top of the ichimuku cloud as support.
- Bullish divergence on the RSI.
The correlation between BTC, S&P 500 and vice versa with the dollar makes me ask too many questions?
- Are we really correlated with the S&P 500 at 80% of the time after the FTX crash and now with an S&P 500 up while BTC down?
- What impact will a future rise in the dollar have on the basic traded BTC against the dollar?
- Will big investors leave BTC to go to the dollar given the rates and the rise of the dollar, or the BTC will be a safe haven against the dollar and others fiat?
Finally I don't have a fixed answer, I only have probabilities, given the pros and cons, I think we have more chance of going even lower than the last low at 15.5K and this is only a matter of time, or maybe we will consolidate for weeks and months in a range between 15K to 25K, I remain cautious in my risk management, I will continue to DCA slowly at the top of the range and sharply down on big corrections.
We buy fear and we sell euphoria!!!.
The range can hurt futures traders with exits from time to time from the top and bottom of the range with fake break outs to come back inside and when the whales have accumulated well we will have a trend (Down or UP?), I think for now the volatility will drop after the fear has set in, which will drive a lot of investors out.
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