The weekend is the time with the big leverages, the little fish go out for a ride and the whales are preparing the trap with low volatility.
Between 20K and 21K there are more Longs to liquidate compared to the south between 19K and 18K, it will be more profitable for the market makers to push the price higher to fill the pockets of the exchanges with the liquidations of the Longs and the hunt will continue.
Logic tells me that we will have inflation still on the rise and above what analysts have forecast given the drop in the unemployment rate, which can lead to an increase in interest rates of up to 1%, and it's clearly visible on the S&P 500 which is already pricing the news and falling sharply today, but the market is a big scammer, it often does the opposite, so we can have inflation down next Thursday and that's a reason to mislead anyone who has shorted the market.
What the market often does is trap the majority in a range of accumulation that takes more than 75% of the time compared to a downtrend or uptrend.
I summarize the market in three letters A M D
1- Accumulation: in a consolidation range with low volatility, and the range often comes after a strong trend move.
2- Manipulation: Once we are in the accumulation range the price starts looking for stops at the top and bottom of the range leaving wicks behind.
3- Distribution: When everyone starts to get bored in a slow moving market, finally what happens is that people no longer believe in break outs and stay on their positions and worse they reinforce them by remaining biased by their direction , then the real break out finally arrives.
AMD is in the SMC "Smart Money Concept", used by "ICT"
Conclusion:
If inflation will be above forecast, then it's already priced, so there won't be a strong move down, but if it's the other way around, then we'll have a big green candle to empty the train shorts, and until then we'll see the psychology of the crowd!
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