In the last election of the 2024 cycle, Americans will choose their representatives in the House, Senate, and President.
The elections may have long-term effects for bitcoin and blockchain regulations due to Democrats and Republicans controlling both houses and the White House.
The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, and the Financial Technology Protection Act of 2023 were passed by a weak Republican House majority in 2023, one of the least productive in US history.
Bills may pass the Senate between the US election and January 2025, but may face a new Congress with new legislators and leadership.
The election's crypto-related issues include the US Securities and Exchange Commission's leadership under Chair Gary Gensler, lawmakers' ability to invest in digital assets while in office, and federal crypto-crime enforcement. Though it garners attention, the presidential election is just one component in crypto legislation.
The Senate is 51–49 Democratic, but 34 seats are up for grabs on Nov. 5. Whichever party controls the Senate controls committee leadership and the legislative agenda, such as whether hearings concentrate on illegal digital asset usage or its advantages.
Crypto advocates may focus on the Ohio Senate contest between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno. One of Congress' most prominent crypto critics is Senate Banking Committee head Senator Brown. The contest was a toss-up in early November polling.
Texas has several Bitcoin mining businesses, and Democratic Representative Colin Allred wants to replace Ted Cruz in the Senate. Cruz is endorsed by industry groups like the Texas Blockchain Council for his “unapologetically” pro-crypto attitude.
Allred voted for FIT21 and urged Democrats to take a “forward-looking approach” to digital assets and blockchain technology. Most surveys indicated Cruz led Allred by a few points.
Other tight contests, including Jon Tester and Tim Sheehy in Montana, might help Republicans win the Senate, although multiple outcomes could benefit the sector. While Republican challenger and XRP lawyer John Deaton challenged Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, most surveys suggested she would hold her seat.
Moreno might beat Senator Brown, but the Democrats could win a Texas seat and require a new committee chair. Republicans could win one Senate seat and the presidency, with JD Vance as a tiebreaker.
“The prospects of a Senate Republican majority could spur other legislative developments for the industry, especially on the heels of Senator Tim Scott's announcement of establishing a crypto subcommittee should Republicans win,” Ron Hammond, Blockchain Association director of government relations, told Cointelegraph in September.
Democrats would retain Senate control if Kamala Harris wins the president and Democrats lose a seat, with Tim Walz voting as the tiebreaker. In August, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer stated he wanted to achieve bipartisan pro-crypto legislation before 2025, indicating a Harris administration would follow suit.
Crypto interest organizations have spent millions on 2024 congressional advertising supporting pro-crypto politicians and opposing anti-crypto ones. Though PACs have spent millions in Senate contests where one candidate favors crypto, House races are also important.
After polls shut on Nov. 5, millions of Americans will choose representatives in 435 congressional districts. Like the Senate, the House may pass crypto industry legislation and oversee the SEC.
Republican Representative Patrick McHenry headed the House Financial Services Committee, with Democratic Representative Maxine Waters ranking. A stablecoin measure was negotiated by both parties, but its fate in a future Congress is unknown.
Representative French Hill, who leads a digital asset subcommittee, took over as committee chair when Representative McHenry stated in 2023 that he would not compete for reelection. If Democrats gain enough seats to retake the House, Representative Waters may resume that function.
PACs like Fairshake are ready to back additional pro-crypto MPs in 2024 regardless of the result. The 2026 midterm committee stated on Nov. 4 that Coinbase and Andreessen Horowitz had donated $48 million.
