Grand Rising Traders,
Yesterday's bullish spike provided a glimmer of hope as we finally muscled through the stubborn 68,923 resistance level. However, the euphoria was short-lived as that breakout quickly ran out of steam after a single hourly candle.
The rejection was swift and decisive, slamming the price right back into the range we've been stuck in. As much as we crave a resolution to this tightening consolidation, it appears the shackles will remain firmly in place over the upcoming weekend.
For the next couple of days, expect the price to brush between the upper and lower consolidation lines. The floor appears fairly solid at 66,951, with sellers defending their line in the sand. On the upside, we face a ceiling at 69,369, the resistance level that capped yesterday's premature rally attempt.
Within this compressed 2,400-point range, we'll likely continue witnessing whipsaw moves and fake-out breaks in either direction. However, any momentary breakouts mustering enough force to slice through those barriers should be treated as bear traps if occurring over the weekend.
Lower liquidity increases the risk of misfires and inefficient price discoveries on breakouts. Historically, we've seen multiple examples of moves accomplished on weekends swiftly reversing once proper trading conditions resumed. This means that a lot of people only trade during the week and spend time with family on weekends, so trading slows on weekends.
So while the eventual resolution will likely catch many off-guard with an explosive directional move, there's no need to jump the gun and over-leverage into breakout attempts this weekend. Chances are, we'll just experience another return journey into the range soon after.
The safest approach over the next couple of days is to respect the well-defined boundaries. Play the range and look for opportunities between 66,951 and 69,369. Keeping it simple until the market regains mainstream participation next week is advisable.
Possible Bear Breakout and Run
We've been boxed inside this range for over two weeks now. A couple more days of compressing price action could finally lead to the spring we've been hoping for. But there's no point chasing premature breaks when institutions are away from their desks.
Remain patient and stick to your strategies this weekend. The range is tightening, indicating the resolution, whenever it arrives, could be explosive. Let's be prepared to capitalize when that happens. Until then, maintain your discipline.
Across next week, I'll continue mapping the consolidation and identifying potential breakout regions to monitor. For now, I'll sign off wishing you all have a relaxing, profitable weekend.
This is the Dark Sage; catch you Sunday.
Peace!
