What's Going On Traders?
We're at a pivotal make-or-break juncture on the charts right now. That 65K level is shaping up as a huge trigger point for the next directional move. If the bulls manage to keep the price above it, we could be setting up for a continuation of this new uptrend.
But if 65K gives way, that raises the possibility of a bearish breakdown and correction of this little bullish run we've had going. I'd peg a 20% to 50% retracement as a reasonable downside target if the bears regain control. Not the end of the world, but certainly not ideal for keeping momentum up.
My saving grace in a bearish scenario? That 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement areas should provide a solid support buffer. Based on my reads, the 38.2% Fib level has tended to hold pretty firmly as a reversal point during larger pullbacks not to mention there’s also a consolidation line right there. So even if we do get swept lower, that zone should help mitigate further downside risk.
Of course, the bullish invalidation point would be a break below 23.6% Fibonacci support. That could open Pandora's box for an extended bearish reversal taking us back towards the COVID lows and worse. But I'm not entertaining that possibility just yet if the 23.6% defenses hold up.
The ideal scenario for continuing this uptrend is clear: we need to see a decisive bounce and bullish reaction from the 65K trigger point. A strong pushback above that level, combined with a clean breakout above the old consolidation resistance, would reset the bull run.
At that point, I'd be ready for a new impulsive bullish cycle, reset the Fibonacci retracement levels from the latest swing high, and ride the momentum higher. The bots FIL/BTC, NMR/BTC, and MATIC/BTC still have a way to go before they start selling again. They need a strong new bullish cycle to get back into play and sell for some long awaited profits.
For now, though, I'm on high alert for the 65K pivot point. That zone is going to determine whether we continue creeping higher or get smacked back down for a larger correction first. No matter which way it breaks, I'll be ready to adapt accordingly.
The market's pre-loaded for volatility here. Let's see where it takes us next...
