I've known a lot of people in my life who I just won't debate with. I know they'll never change their mind no matter what kind of proof or argument I have to offer them. It's like talking to a wall, and it's really frustrating. Except I do it too. For the longest time I believed that adults knew what they were doing. Even when I became an adult and had no idea what I was doing, it was because I was immature or not "adult enough" yet, but "real adults" definitely knew what they were doing. Now I know that we're all a confused mess just trying to get by day-to-day. But I'm sure there are other beliefs I hold despite evidence to the contrary, which I'm not even aware of. In social psychology this is called Belief Perseverance.

It can come in three forms. First, beliefs about yourself, such as if I were to believe that I'm athletic despite the fact that I'm out of breath after running for 30 seconds. Second, beliefs about specific other people, such as if I were to believe my boss hates me even though I was recently promoted and she compliments my work. Third, beliefs about how the world works. To me, the most fascinating example of this last type is the flat-earth theory and all the people who believe it despite mountains of evidence (and reality) telling them they're wrong.

I see this last one a lot in crypto. There is a strong tendency for us to cling tightly to what we believe and not want to let go of it, whether that's a belief in a specific project/coin or a belief about how crypto will change the world (it might...or it might not). There's value in that level of conviction- you'll hold that bag through the dips and be there if it comes out on top. But there's also risk. Maybe you don't get out when you should have and lost more than you needed. Or maybe you put yourself at unnecessary risk because you don't see the risk. How could there be risk when you know it'll work and no evidence will change your mind.

There are lots of specific examples of belief perseverance impacting our investing and trading decisions in crypto. Trading on margin but not taking the advice of a trusted friend to get out because you're so convinced it'll work for you and you won't lose it all. Doubling down on a risky memecoin whose price plummeted because you believe in it and think it's just buying at a discount. If we want to be successful with this, we have to be open to data that may go against what we already believe.

That's hard to do because it's natural for our beliefs to persevere like this. But there are really two things you can do to help yourself see it more clearly. First, be aware of it. Notice and reflect on your strong beliefs and see how they may impact your decision making. Then try to argue for the other side. You think your margin won't get called and you won't get liquidated? Make an argument for why it will happen. Maybe then you'll see it more clearly. It's not easy. But neither is proper due diligence. And to be successful in this space you need good research and self-awareness to catch mental mistakes and biases.