We can most definitely have an idea of where
Bitcoin is going to go if we follow the model from
the two previous halvenings. It is clearly shown
in the above depiction that Bitcoin doesn't really
get "excited" on or near the actual havening event.
But rather, in both cases Bitcoin starts to incline
dramatically after a month or two after the havening.
Going into a year after the halvening event,
the 2012 model shows a +8,000% increase while the
2016 model shows a +284% increase. Knowing which
one of these models we are more likely to follow
in this coming halvening can be tricky since there
are new factors such as the supposed launch of a
digital currency in China, which happens to coincide
with the halvening event. There is also great economical
upheavals around the world caused by a global pandemic.
If you think that these factors won't affect the aftermath
of this coming halvening then you are mistaken.
As for how These occurrences will affect the Price and
movement of Bitcoin after the block rewards are cut
in half and it becomes more scarce, everyone will have their
own opinions but as me, I think that as the masses begin to
realize that fiat currencies have been inflated and are
losing their value, they will seek out alternative means
to secure their finances out of survival instinct.
millions and even billions of dollars will then pour into
Bitcoin and cryptos causing their prices to rise exponentially.
It would not surprise me if Bitcoin breaks its all time
high and reach $20,000 before this year is over.
We must also not forget that another unforeseen event
such as the coronavirus is very much possible and
could also play a part in Bitcoin's price movements.
They have propped up the Stock markets instead of
allowing it to properly correct on its own. When
the next crash comes it will be significantly greater
and will only make things better for Bitcoin and the
cryptos in the long run.