"People who know little are usually great talkers, while men who know much say little."
-Jean-Jacques Rousseau
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Happy Monday Folks! Bitcoin is trading up at $44,212.74 and just formed a golden cross on the weekly chart. Over the weekend all eyes continue to be on the Spot Bitcoin ETFs - will it be a sell or buy the news event? Still a toss up. The SEC is urging folks not to FOMO, now why is that? Because I believe if they approve the ETF the price is going to rally hard.(3)
...and, it appears that BlackRock purchased $10M in $BTC and said they believe it will be approved by Wednesday; S-1 form are being amended today and a fee war has broken out.(6) Grayscale has updated it's S3 and indicates a 1.5% fee.(2) Now, if you've paid any attention to the SEC you will know that they usually announce earlier than the deadline and the 10th is the last day that they have to make a final decision on the Ark 21 Shares ETF; they can't kick the can down the road any further on that one. So as you can imagine if they approve that one, BlackRock will also prob get approved with a whole host of others. Follow Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart to get the word right from the Bloomberg Analysts mouth.
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Bitcoin will become mainstream by 2024 and the ETFs will help it get there.(3) Macro strategist Henrik Zeberg believes Bitcoin could reach $115K by the end of 2024.
It appears something is going on with Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet. Someone sent 26 $BTC to it and no one knows why.(2) Some speculate it's to reveal who Satoshi is but I think it will prove the IRS unable to enforce their law because they have no idea who it is. This will demonstrate the power of Bitcoin if you can remain pseudonymous.(2) In addition, someone spent $64K to inscribe 9MB of data on to the Bitcoin Blockchain; people are weird.(2)
Over 6,000 businesses now accept $BTC as a medium of exchange; latest is Japan's largest e-commerce giant Mercari.(5) So many people say it's not a good form of a medium of exchange but I believe this use case will continue to grow. Bitcoin ATM numbers are dropping and that might be good since the fees are so high.(2) CoinsPaid gateway suffered it's second hacked in six months for $7.5M, be careful with all of these different platforms.
AFTERNOON
Well, Well, Well, Lookie, Lookie - Bitcoin is over $47K and pushed as high as $47.3K! Is this run up a preamble for the massive explosion once the news breaks or as Meltem, Mike McGlone, and others say, it might be a sell the news event. There are bear cases where some believe the SEC could rug pull us and not approve it. I believe if we keep running fast and hard north before the announcement we could see a sell off after as well. $48K - 50K has been the sentiment for a while, let's see if it can get above $50K before we sell off; Matrixport (Jihan Wu) thinks it will fall 7% in 2 weeks. But Wednesday is suppose to be "the" day according to BlackRock and Jay Clayton says it's inevitable; buckle up buttercups!
Jane Street is the authorized participant for all 11 ETF applications. VanEck is seeding with $72.5M and Bitwise with $200M - that's a lot of $BTC being bought; don't snooze folks. Gary Gensler continues to send warnings of "No FOMO." But folks are the ETFs a road headed for trouble? Valkyrie's Bitcoin ETF application reveals a clause that allows the US government to take control of the fund's underlying BTC.
$151M poured into Crypto funds and the ETFs could bring another $50-$100B in 2024. Meanwhile, North Korean hackers Lazarus is moving Bitcoin around. Last year 1.8T was lost to security incidents, folks c'mon man! Wise up!
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Podcast of the Day: The Bitcoin ETF: Bitcoin's Bullish Catalyst | OTM
