Even though House Republicans continue to work and Members and Staff have been advised they could be recalled to DC for votes the likelihood of a spending bill coming together this weekend is practically zero. The issue that has been hampering the House spending bills shows no signs of getting addressed and even if the House manages to pass something the version the Republican-held House would pass would not be adopted by the Democratic-held Senate. Since no spending bills have passed thus far every part of the government will be affected including the SEC.
Now Gary has already made some comments about what the shutdown effects could be there are several critical ones to the crypto agency that will occur immediately. As soon as the calendar flips to October 1st funding is over for the SEC and immediate furloughs are going to take place in the agency. While this will have wide-ranging implications for the crypto space will be extremely interesting to see play out in real time.
While some of the SEC staff will be granted essential status meaning they will continue to report to work a majority are going to end up furloughed according to Gensler which is why he made his skeleton crew comment. For the crypto space, the biggest eye-catching thing that is almost guaranteed to happen will be the ETF decisions will be delayed. Even if the shutdown is short it is going to create a backlog for workers that is going to end up pushing things back. Since the ETFs have continuously been something pushed it makes it an easy choice.
Other issues that will quickly emerge to make news will be in regard to the various lawsuits that the SEC has going on. Whatever lawyers are left will quickly be pooling their efforts into the most time-sensitive cases especially the Binance US case as they just won a decision from the courts to immediately gain access to what they have deemed critical documents. Other lawsuits like the one with Coinbase will just be thrown on the back burner and will end up giving Coinbase the ability to try to get the suit tossed if the SEC tries to delay it too long due to the ability to have your case heard in a timely fashion.
The other investigations that have been hinted at in the DeFi space will essentially come to a complete halt due to priorities. In all honestly this to me is the biggest blessing in disguise about the whole situation as by default the SEC will be reigned in and not able to launch the assault on crypto as it has been doing. This will also definitely be something that is embarrassing to Gensler which I think we all wouldn't mind seeing more of.
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