Still uncertain!

Even though Joe Biden is leading the opinion polls over Donald Trump still the results are uncertain. I am not just saying never loose until it is over. 

Note that in 2014 Hilary Clinton had a majority of about 3 million votes ahead of Trump. It is all about the US Electoral College!

The Electoral College

In the recent past, the Democrats were the losers of this system. Last time Hilary Clinton and in 2000 Al Gore lose against Bush with about a million votes ahead of Bush. 

I am not a critique of the US electoral college. In my view, I think it is a good idea (if my view matters, I am not sure which system is better. Democracy in different formats has its flaw. Surely I don't want a dictator nor anarchy). In a large country like the USA, I don't think it is a good idea to have a simple majority. So a collection of states which decides what is good or bad may be a better option. 

Swing States

There are 197 Electrol votes that are still not certain. It can go either way. So-called `Toss Up` states.

If anyone is interested in playing with the numbers here is a great resource. 

How does it affect Finacial Markets?

• In general, it is considered a Trump win will be good for business
• Biden may have a policy for more social spending which may be good for an economic boost.

So it is up to individuals to make their interpretations not me :)

Probable Cases

• Biden Wins
• Trump wins
• Trump challenges the Biden win(this will have major implications in financial markets)

Markets to look out for:

• The US indexes
• Currency pairs like EURUSD, USDCHF, and USDGBP(financial currency pairs)
• Currency pairs like AUDUSD and NZDUSD( commodity currencies) 

(Experts separate the pairs in these two ways and expected to go in a reverse direction depending on the election result). 

There will be a huge shakeup on election day. Learning from the past, there will be both up and down. Do anyone here thinks having an open buy or sell without Stop Loss a huge risk? In my view, it will go up and down on the same day. So if your take profit is in a reasonable position you will be profitable in a long and short position. But anyone has the guts to do that? 

What do you think?