The S&P is losing momentum on the upside. The index is saying, "I'm tired." Furthermore, following the latest agricultural employment data, the likelihood of a Fed interest rate cut in September has begun to rise. I believe that better levels for the US will maintain the potential for the Nasdaq to reach levels around 23,000 this year or later this year. However, I also expect the S&P to reach levels above 7,000-7,100. So, let me put it this way: I'm a strong bull for the US in the medium term. Due to the lack of short-term momentum and strength, these tariffs, and the fact that the balance sheets are coming in the US, and a relatively new period of anticipation after their completion, I expect a slight correction, a bit of a bubble-out, a pleasant correction, at least until September. There's a possibility of a September interest rate cut.
I'm an extremely cautious bull for the US in the short term. While I'm an overly cautious bull, I will remain a strong bull with a potential medium-term rally of 23,400 for the Nasdaq and 7,100 for the S&P. A brief summary would suggest a few weeks of balanced trading, with some risk appetite in short-term positions and a slightly lighter weighting of positions. However, as I mentioned, following these several weeks of sideways and/or sideways downward corrections, I believe the US will remain bullish, using the interest rate cut as an excuse, and/or, as you know, the market always finds an excuse. Perhaps, with a shift towards a more moderate tariff situation, I'll add a small parenthesis to this statement. I believe a waiting, relative horizontal correction will continue for a few weeks, perhaps until the fourth week of August, during which we'll experience some zigzagging and small sawing movements.
I don't think we're in a position-add zone at the moment. The Nasdaq fluctuated from 20100 to 14800 with the Trump tariffs. Here, too, it was being said that America was too expensive. It caught that bubble and quickly crossed the peak on the left, stopping at the Fibonacci 1.272 mark. We haven't quite reached the 21600 level, but we've begun to show signs of fatigue, or rather, a skid, in the 21100-21000 range. We've seen the Nasdaq struggle to stay above its 8-day moving average (21000) for the last 5-6 days. This continues to send us warning signals that the correction risk I mentioned earlier may persist for some time. Of course, if the pullbacks are below 20500 and 20070, we can apply this gradual buying discipline by keeping some spare money in case of a drop. Personally, I wouldn't buy anything between 20900 and 21300. I'll ease up a bit on what's happening. Look, I'm not saying I'll abandon my position, I'll ease up a bit. On pullbacks towards 20,550-20,070, I'll buy back what I sold at the bottom.
If it breaks 21,200 before falling here, I'd expect a correction, but that's a default. The Nasdaq is strong. I'll buy back what I sold, thinking they're probably starting to buy into the September interest rate cut. In summary, the 21,200-20,800 area is relatively stable for the Nasdaq and a very sharp sawtooth zone. For me, the probability of a pullback towards 20,550 and 20,070 is 51%. However, I believe that any pullbacks that may occur towards the 20550 and 20070 range, and even broader the risk, will only waste time. I believe that any pullbacks towards the 19200-20070 range, and the decline from 21100-14800 will not change the golden ratio level of 23490 Nasdaq target; they will simply waste time.
Let's say this pullback doesn't happen. I don't want to enter this limbo zone here. There wasn't a downward pullback, but if I wanted to buy from a place where the bar lengths would extend, I would buy above 21200. I would press above 21635. I would make a sweet entry above 21200. I implemented bearish risk management here, assuming that the 1.618 spoiled phase would begin with the Fibonacci 1.272 retracement at 21635, but it didn't happen. I bought above 21200. I'll say I've increased above 21635, and I'll enter the momentum phase. But the Nasdaq chart isn't generating momentum right now. Let me be very clear. Don't expect momentum for this chart for a while. It's going to lie down, sleep, correct, shake, and shake. Few people anticipated the upward movement that began in April.
In April, they were saying there was still a 20% downside margin in the S&P. The series came in, and we made a high V on the right leg. It needs to digest this movement. In the US, too, amidst all the bickering between Trump and Powell, the movement here is terrifying. There's index engineering going on in the US, too. In the US, movements are now happening with certain stocks. Therefore, I think the Nasdaq trend will hold 23490 strong at its target potential in the medium and long term. In the medium and long term, America is still the strong bull, but in the short term, until 21635 is broken, bulls should interpret the pullbacks towards 21635 and the 20550-20070 levels not with fear, but as a necessary move. They should approach it with composure.
The OKLO chart has established an ascending channel that began in April. If we look at its classic discipline, there is a medium-term figure within the channel, with a bottom-to-top scale, making every drop a buying opportunity. I see it forming a rhythm within the channel, but I buy with moving averages and sell with Fibonacci retracements. I don't look at the channel bottom or the channel top. If I'm going to increase a position in a stock, I don't increase it when it approaches the channel top. I increase it when it approaches the channel bottom. But I don't empty my portfolio just because it's reached the channel top. I follow a discipline of emptying it when the moving averages break.
Meanwhile, after a roughly 4-5-month period of sideways pressure from January to April, from $58 to $17, it first completed its small cup. Then it made a slight handle-like movement and broke upward. Now, when you look at it overall, it's filling and filling. Here, it's reached $84 of its $17 drop from $58 to $1,618, the Fibonacci retracement. Therefore, the short-term channel target for Oklo is 94. The Fibonacci target is 2,618 at 125. Now, if you ask me, will Oklo go from $94 to $125? It has the potential to do so. However, if I'm going to protect investors from the risk of a correction by rapidly moving towards 94 and 125, let's use technical analysis to focus on 84.19. Because the $58-$17 drop is the golden ratio. As you know, life is built on the golden ratio. Everything depends on the golden ratio. If 84.19 closes at greater than or equal to two, Oklo will continue, 94 will be the channel target, and 125 will be something like a doubling target. What we need to pay attention to here is this: As I've been saying, there could be a potential correction risk in the Nasdaq and US stock markets towards 72.5-63.10. A stock like Oklo, and such a decline on this chart, should be cause for celebration.
Therefore, I will be monitoring the 84.19 resistance level at Oklo. To monitor whether the correction is starting or continuing without correction, any potential pullbacks in Okla towards 72.5-63.10 will likely be between 94-125 in the short term and 166 in the medium term. I'm aware there's a significant target potential. I'm aware there's a target potential of $166. If we're trading upwards towards 94-125 in the short term or 166 in the medium term, we need to place a stop-loss at the 2-day close of 63.10. In other words, we need to keep risk under control. Why 63.10? Because it completed all its corrections after previously trending within the 34-day period. The 34-day period already coincided with the bottom of the upward channel. The bottom of the channel coincided with the 34-day moving average. Therefore, when it drops towards 72.5-63.10, I consider it a good chart offering a good presentation.
If it breaks through 84.19 without falling, I can say Oklo will continue its path with gusto towards 94 and 125. It's a good chart. If you ask me to tell you one thing about the chart that bothers you, it might want to release it to 84.10, as it reaches the Fibonacci 1.618, even though it will feed the potential of 94-125. Release shouldn't be driven by fear. It's like, "What a nice offer, give it to me, I'll take it." And I'll turn that into an opportunity.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
