There are different catalysts in America right now. We experienced an increase with Trump's election. Then a correction, after the correction we experienced the second momentum with Bessent. Because when he announced that he would take a name from Wall Street and appoint him as the treasury secretary, we saw an increase in appetite in the market. But this week, when Trump came out and said that he would impose additional new taxes on Mexico, Canada and China, the market got a little confused, whether to read this from a good or bad perspective. Some institutions also started to revise their S&P estimates upwards. I have a problem there. I take them as a reverse indicator. When S&P was at 3600, they were revising it down by 20%. Now Fibonacci has reached 2.618 and now they are revising it upwards. I don't take these institutions too seriously. In other words, the reports of these institutions are not the decision makers of my positions. Also, don't take these guys seriously. If you take them seriously, you should have been short since 3400. I am in control of the Santa Claus rally this year. There was no serious rally in 2023. We entered 2024 with a little rally. I think there will be a balanced movement this year. For example, I do not expect great enthusiasm in America in December.
The trend continues in S&P. Medium-term America is very strong, let me clarify that once. That's why I will not open a short. The discipline of going above the trend with its 34-week moving average continues. Therefore, pullbacks remain as buying opportunities. However, according to major Fibonacci, we have reached 1.618. In other words, there is a potential to see 6986s in the medium-term America. Think of it as writing a strategic report. S&P 6900 came to the radar without giving time and this is the foreword of the report. But as I get into the report, as I get into the analysis, I explain the short-term risks. Therefore, I am very strong in S&P, I am a strong bull, but since we have reached an important threshold in the short term, I am keeping my feet on the ground a little against a correction. We have reached 6024, which is the 1.618 of this correction of the 5600 - 5150 decline (there was a correction of about 5 weeks here). Therefore, the 6024 level is an important resistance zone for long-directed transactions in S&P. They have taken it horizontally below 1.618 for 4 weeks here, and the 8-week moving average also supports the price.
In fact, the chart is in a movement dynamics to exceed 6024, and the lower indicator also supports the price. But as investors or players who do business with technical analysis, we say this; If you are in S&P at a cost, that is, if you are in the trend, stay on the board. Continue to move with the wave and take your profit and position. But I cannot say the same thing to those who will join. If you are going to take a position, I want two full days of closing above 6024. If there are two full days of closing, I would say that the 6500 movement in America has been triggered and I will continue to be strong long. I advise those who want to make new costs to continue their upward trading discipline with 6538 above 6024 at the closing above 6024, this is important, to put a stop somewhere reasonable below 6000 in order not to fall into a bull trap. There were no two closings above 6024. You are also long trading, you are above the up board, you are above the wave, 5879 - 6024 is the height of the wave below the surf board, if 6024 is passed, those who have a position continue, those who want to participate continue by putting a stop. They will batter you in a way that can reach 5648 below 5879 on the S&P weekly chart. They will receive a very serious bear slap.
In this sense, long traders should follow the 5879 support in short, as long as it stays above it, controlled upwards towards 6024 - 6200's but a close below 5879 without passing 6024 would trigger the start of a short-term 5648 correction for me on this chart and while I expect a New Year's rally in S&P below 5879 that could reach 5648 or even 5530's, I also put the risk of being slapped by a bear in my risk notes. Let me elaborate in order not to create anxiety. As long as it stays above 5879, the trend continues upwards, and below 5879, a bear slap comes towards 5648's. It is necessary to defend there. When it leaves and reaches 5648 - 5550's, it may be necessary to return to the game again by blending what it gives from above from below as discipline.
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