The S&P is hitting record highs. Every morning, Trump makes a new statement, but if you're aware, the market has stopped selling it. But, for example, they're looking at the bright side. Japan and the US reached an agreement. We immediately saw a 3.5% rise in the Nikkei index. They price in positive developments but are a bit more cautious about negative developments. Because the market solved Trump's bug due to this taco trade. It could also be described as price saturation. Therefore, even though the same risks remain, the market is still hitting historic highs. There's still clear upside potential in the medium-term S&P and Nasdaq. However, there are some stocks that are experiencing some short-term pressure, especially around the Fibonacci 78.6 in the Magnificent 7. With some pressure from these stocks, we could see very sweet, soft downward or what we call horizontal downward corrections. But I expect a move to reach 1618 in the US this year. It's not over yet. This is officially a hold-all market. But the important thing here is this: There's a chart to follow for those with old prices, but we're in a region where caution should be exercised when applying new prices. How should we manage that risk?
If I'm opening a position today, should I be looking at short moving averages? The 8-day moving average trend is clearly continuing on the daily Nasdaq chart. If we're absolutely determined to open a position on Nasdaq, for example, if we're reading 20700 as a very close day trade, we should consider the 20700s. No, 20700 is very close for me; if we think I can create a bit more margin and bear a certain level of risk, we should pay attention to 20100. Therefore, I believe 20700 will be intermediate support, and 20100 will be the short-term main support. The short-term target for Nasdaq is 21545, while the Fibonacci 1.618 target, 23383, is a target price zone I expect to reach for Nasdaq, specifically this year or in the first quarter of 2026.
Those who want to try their luck in the market by simply experiencing a short-term loss of momentum need to implement some temporary risk management, using the principle that a close below 20,700 indicates a correction towards the 20,100s. To manage this major correction, let's say a correction has begun. 20,700 is broken. To be able to say a correction has begun, a close below 20,700 implies a correction towards the 20,100s in the Nasdaq. This is to manage short-term risk.
So, what should be done if 20,700 is broken and the Nasdaq falls to the 20,100s and 19,500s ranges? From my perspective, for those waiting for cash and those who missed the trend from April to July, here's a new opportunity. Therefore, 20,700 is intermediate support, while 20,100 and 19,570 are the Nasdaq's trend support zones. Is there a risk of a potential correction to the 20100-19500 range? That's the question. Even if it's mild, this risk is present in the pocket of risk analysis. However, any pullbacks towards the 19570s will not disrupt the short-term targets of 21545 and specifically 23383, followed by the Fibonacci 1.618. There's already a very sharp trend. This trend continues. Therefore, it's easy to say "hold," but difficult to say "open" in such markets. However, due to the stagnation and loss of momentum, don't overly manage the number of lots and contracts you've opened. This is because momentum is weak here.
Walmart is stuck within the Fibonacci 78.6 and 61.8 range. First and foremost, it's important to note that it fell from $105 to $78, or its 233-day moving average, during the Trump tariff decline. However, it provided a perfect buying opportunity, and from there, it retraced to the Fibonacci 78.6 of its entire decline. Now, Walmart is crystal clear. If Walmart closes at $100, creating new momentum, new enthusiasm, and a new upward movement from this horizontal band, I'll say an upward trigger has begun on this chart. Walmart could continue its 2.5-month consolidation and plateau between $100 and 92.20 cents until it breaks through $100.
If the Walmart chart is moving sharply upward, tilting to the right, and refusing to let go, there could be two reasons. First, it's approaching the 233-day moving average from below, finding support there and finding technical support that will propel it upward. Therefore, it could be buying time. Second, it's waiting for its earnings while buying time. Therefore, the technical outlook here is positive. Note that this squeeze between $100 and - or 92.20 cents and $90 could continue for a while until it breaks through $100. I'm considering this chart as a 2.5-month dormant period ending if it closes at $100. In short, I would say it is opening a dollar-based corridor of approximately 10% to 20% towards 105.80 - 113 and then 122.
Be careful: the chart may be good as long as it doesn't exceed $100, but the chart will carry itself between $100 and $90. I'll buy and sell stocks below $90 on this chart. Again, I won't wait for it to break $100. I'll stop trading below $90 on this chart. So, I made an investment, but I'm wrong. I'll tie the risk to the $90-lower-equals-closer. Do I have a 10% dollar-based risk on the position? Yes. My risk is clear, but my target is 122. Now, you'll decide here. Would you take a 9%-10% risk on a 20%? Books say buy. Books say the best strategy, especially for beginners, is 2:1, meaning if you're taking a 1 unit risk, target a 2 unit gain. If you're more advanced, target a 3 unit profit for a 1 unit loss. Therefore, this exact strategy I've developed is 2:1. This is the most ideal. You take the classic ideal risk. Do you like risky trades? Then, you can place a stop-loss below $90 and keep your position size high. Position size equals risk. Risk equals return. If you're a risk-taker and your risk tolerance is high, you'll accept a stop-loss below $90, buy high, and take the risk.
There are momentum traders. Momentum traders, for example, won't buy here unless it breaks $100. They wait for that $100 bounce. But momentum trading carries a risk: How will you get in when it breaks? Will you wait for the hour? Will you wait for the daily close? People can lose track of the flow. The professional qualifications of momentum traders are very important. You're a doctor, a momentum trader. You'll likely never be able to make a sustainable profit. You pull someone's tooth, and momentum returns. What do you do? You're a doctor, you've gone into surgery, scalpel in hand, momentum returns, what do you do? That's why doctors can't be momentum traders. But good traders, those with good screen skills, the ability to press buttons, and those who can manage their amygdala can be good momentum traders. Therefore, before deciding what to bet on here, one must first understand their own structure.
It's not to say that Walmart's support levels at $92 and $90 won't pull back to $90-$92. However, if $100 is broken, there's potential for accumulation here, starting with $105-$113 and then moving towards $122. However, for this potential accumulation to trigger the time-equals-return discipline, because time is crucial in the stock market, it needs to break through $100. It will continue to hold until it breaks $100.
Looking at Intel, it's not as strong as Walmart's, but there's a trend here that's also connecting to the horizontal. In other words, there's an attempt to move higher. At least the bottoms are forming above the previous ones. This is a bit more positive. When you squeeze the chart, the tops are much higher on the left. In fact, Intel is still working on a bottom after a very serious decline. In other words, the dollar has returned to its base level of 20 years ago. So, where you buy what from is crucial. Intel has proven this. In other words, it's trying to enter a trend by pushing the bottom out in the short term. This is relatively positive. $22.80-$21 is the support zone. Despite Intel's significant downtrend over the last year and a half, I attach great importance to $21 as a way to support efforts to enter a trend and enter a short-term trend.
If you ask me if I'd trade Intel, it's been under heavy selling. I would trade it, but with very low contracts and very low lots. Second question: What should I pay attention to if you trade Intel? As long as it stays above $21, I'll stay above it. I won't be tempted by high lots, but I consider it worth monitoring. Therefore, if a close of $21 is less than or equal to $21, I would pocket a 10-11% risk ratio from the current average price, read the $21 close with a stop-loss discipline, and monitor the potential for a short move towards 24.5-25.40, then 28.79 and 31.80.
Below $21, Intel's upward movement towards 24.5-28.70 would be significantly hampered. It's a stock that's been battered for a year. There's still a clear lack of momentum. Therefore, in summary, a correction towards $21 would occur below $22.80. Below $21, Intel's nearly two-month upward movement could be disrupted. Unless $21 is broken, I would short 24.5-25.5, and target ranges of 28.80-31.5 would be monitored. Under $21 I'd ditch Intel.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
